Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Rhode Island 28.4, Merrimack 22.6 at Duane Stadium in Week 1. That is a lean: Rhode Island wins about 65% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 5.8 points and 51 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
Rhode Island has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results. Merrimack has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Rhode Island by 28 and Merrimack by 17 about 80% of the time.
Merrimack gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Rhode Island is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Rhode Island 34, Merrimack 7. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 21.2 points and the total by 10.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Rhode Island / Merrimack) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Rhode Island -20.5 → Rhode Island -21 | 53.5 → 47.5 | -1960 / +890 |
| DraftKings | Rhode Island -20.5 → Rhode Island -21 | 53.5 → 47.5 | -1960 / +890 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Merrimack win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Rhode Island -6 | 51.0 | 35% |
| Market consensus | Rhode Island -21 | 47.5 | 10% |
| Blended projection | Rhode Island -18.5 | 48.7 | 10% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Merrimack win probability
- model 35% · market (no-vig) 10% · difference +26 pts
- Margin
- model Rhode Island -5.8 · market Rhode Island -21 · difference +15.2 pts (Merrimack view)
- Total
- model 51.0 · market 47.5 · difference +3.5
Model margin is 15.2 pts more toward Merrimack than the market.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Rhode Island 28.4, Merrimack 22.6 | Rhode Island 65%right winner | 21.2 | 10.0 |
| New formula | Rhode Island 26.2, Merrimack 23.6 | Rhode Island 56%right winner | 24.4 | 8.8 |
Final: Rhode Island 34, Merrimack 7. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Rhode Island vs Merrimack: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Rhode Island | Merrimack |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 31.3 | 20.5 |
| Points allowed per game | 21.1 | 24.4 |
| Yards per play | 6.75 | 5.02 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.15 | 6.77 |
| Rushing yards per game | 158.4 | 194.0 |
| Net passing yards per game | 296.1 | 144.6 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 175.6 | 183.6 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 193.6 | 218.0 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.00 | 0.55 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.21 | 1.00 |
| Sacks per game | 2.57 | 1.09 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.29 | 1.73 |
| Stat | Rhode Island | Merrimack |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.08 | -0.06 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.01 | +0.04 |
| Success rate | 43.9% | 36.6% |
| Success rate allowed | 41.8% | 43.3% |
| Explosive play rate | 15.5% | 12.2% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.3% | 16.7% |
| Havoc rate | 11.4% | 12.6% |
| Havoc allowed | 10.8% | 13.9% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.58 | 3.53 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.23 | 3.21 |
| Average starting field position | opp 6 | opp 14 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 4 | opp 12 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 67.4 | 67.5 |
| Stat | Rhode Island | Merrimack |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.01 | +0.01 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.15 | -0.15 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.07 | +0.00 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.05 | +0.07 |
| Rushing success rate | 45.2% | 39.4% |
| Passing success rate | 44.5% | 32.8% |
| Run stuff rate | 17.5% | 21.5% |
| Passing-down success rate | 34.9% | 31.0% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 26.9% | 27.4% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 45.3% | 39.8% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 34.4% | 34.9% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 60.1% | 43.8% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 60.5% | 52.1% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Rhode Island schedule · Merrimack schedule · all Week 1 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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