Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Tarleton State 30.1, Merrimack 17.4 at Tarleton Memorial Stadium in Week 3. That is a solid edge: Tarleton State wins about 80% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 12.7 points and 47.4 combined points.
Merrimack is 1-2, scoring 12.3 and allowing 30 points per game (-17.7 per game). Tarleton State is 3-0, scoring 32 and allowing 22.3 points per game (+9.7 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Merrimack by 10 and Tarleton State by 35 about 80% of the time.
Tarleton State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Tarleton State by about 10.6. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Merrimack 20, Tarleton State 45. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 12.3 points and the total by 17.6.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Merrimack / Tarleton State) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Tarleton State -34.5 → Tarleton State -32.5 | 58.5 → 54.5 | — / — |
| DraftKings | Tarleton State -34.5 → Tarleton State -32.5 | 58.5 → 54.5 | — / — |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Tarleton State win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Tarleton State -12.5 | 47.4 | 80% |
| Market consensus | Tarleton State -32.5 | 54.5 | 99% |
| Blended projection | Tarleton State -29.5 | 54.5 | 98% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Tarleton State win probability
- model 80% · market (no-vig) —
- Margin
- model Tarleton State -12.7 · market Tarleton State -32.5 · difference -19.8 pts (Tarleton State view)
- Total
- model 47.4 · market 54.5 · difference -7.1
Model margin is 19.8 pts more toward Merrimack than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Merrimack 17.4, Tarleton State 30.1 | Tarleton State 80%right winner | 12.3 | 17.6 |
| New formula | Merrimack 12.3, Tarleton State 38.9 | Tarleton State 96%right winner | 1.5 | 13.8 |
Final: Merrimack 20, Tarleton State 45. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Merrimack vs Tarleton State: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Merrimack | Tarleton State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 20.5 | 42.4 |
| Points allowed per game | 24.4 | 18.6 |
| Yards per play | 5.02 | 6.85 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.77 | 5.78 |
| Rushing yards per game | 194.0 | 209.4 |
| Net passing yards per game | 144.6 | 259.2 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 183.6 | 183.7 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 218.0 | 176.1 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.55 | 0.57 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.00 | 2.21 |
| Sacks per game | 1.09 | 2.29 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.73 | 1.93 |
| Stat | Merrimack | Tarleton State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.06 | +0.19 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.04 | -0.06 |
| Success rate | 36.6% | 45.6% |
| Success rate allowed | 43.3% | 39.0% |
| Explosive play rate | 12.2% | 15.1% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 16.7% | 14.1% |
| Havoc rate | 12.6% | 15.1% |
| Havoc allowed | 13.9% | 14.8% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.53 | 4.19 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.21 | 2.55 |
| Average starting field position | opp 14 | opp 5 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 12 | opp 5 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 67.5 | 68.4 |
| Stat | Merrimack | Tarleton State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.01 | +0.07 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.15 | +0.29 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.00 | -0.05 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.07 | -0.07 |
| Rushing success rate | 39.4% | 45.8% |
| Passing success rate | 32.8% | 46.1% |
| Run stuff rate | 21.5% | 21.4% |
| Passing-down success rate | 31.0% | 34.3% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 27.4% | 25.0% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 39.8% | 42.7% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 34.9% | 31.1% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 43.8% | 67.4% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 52.1% | 35.8% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Merrimack schedule · Tarleton State schedule · all Week 3 projections
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