Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Dartmouth 27.1, Merrimack 16.5 at Memorial Field (Dartmouth) in Week 7. That is a solid edge: Dartmouth wins about 76% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 10.6 points and 43.6 combined points. Tags: leans low scoring.
Merrimack is 2-4, scoring 16.3 and allowing 31 points per game (-14.7 per game). Dartmouth is 1-3, scoring 17.3 and allowing 23.3 points per game (-6 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Merrimack by 12 and Dartmouth by 33 about 80% of the time.
Dartmouth gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Dartmouth by about 8.5. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Merrimack 21, Dartmouth 27. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 4.6 points and the total by 4.4.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Merrimack / Dartmouth) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Dartmouth -11.5 → Dartmouth -10.5 | 47.5 → 44.5 | +312 / -427 |
| DraftKings | Dartmouth -11.5 → Dartmouth -10.5 | 47.5 → 44.5 | +312 / -427 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Dartmouth win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Dartmouth -10.5 | 43.6 | 76% |
| Market consensus | Dartmouth -10.5 | 44.5 | 77% |
| Blended projection | Dartmouth -10.5 | 45.7 | 76% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Dartmouth win probability
- model 76% · market (no-vig) 77% · difference -1 pts
- Margin
- model Dartmouth -10.6 · market Dartmouth -10.5 · difference +0.1 pts (Dartmouth view)
- Total
- model 43.6 · market 44.5 · difference -0.9
Model and market margins agree within half a point.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Merrimack 16.5, Dartmouth 27.1 | Dartmouth 76%right winner | 4.6 | 4.4 |
| New formula | Merrimack 18.0, Dartmouth 26.6 | Dartmouth 72%right winner | 2.7 | 3.4 |
Final: Merrimack 21, Dartmouth 27. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Merrimack vs Dartmouth: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Merrimack | Dartmouth |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 20.5 | 26.4 |
| Points allowed per game | 24.4 | 21.3 |
| Yards per play | 5.02 | 6.09 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.77 | 5.42 |
| Rushing yards per game | 194.0 | 164.7 |
| Net passing yards per game | 144.6 | 219.3 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 183.6 | 115.2 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 218.0 | 241.5 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.55 | 1.00 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| Sacks per game | 1.09 | 1.60 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.73 | 0.90 |
| Stat | Merrimack | Dartmouth |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.06 | +0.04 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.04 | +0.02 |
| Success rate | 36.6% | 45.7% |
| Success rate allowed | 43.3% | 43.8% |
| Explosive play rate | 12.2% | 13.7% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 16.7% | 10.9% |
| Havoc rate | 12.6% | 12.1% |
| Havoc allowed | 13.9% | 13.0% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.53 | 3.66 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.21 | 3.02 |
| Average starting field position | opp 14 | opp 0 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 12 | opp 0 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 67.5 | 63.1 |
| Stat | Merrimack | Dartmouth |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.01 | +0.01 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.15 | +0.08 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.00 | -0.05 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.07 | +0.08 |
| Rushing success rate | 39.4% | 48.2% |
| Passing success rate | 32.8% | 46.3% |
| Run stuff rate | 21.5% | 21.7% |
| Passing-down success rate | 31.0% | 37.0% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 27.4% | 29.7% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 39.8% | 55.0% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 34.9% | 44.2% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 43.8% | 57.6% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 52.1% | 50.8% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Merrimack schedule · Dartmouth schedule · all Week 7 projections
Share this prediction
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.