Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Delaware 41.7, Merrimack 12 at Delaware Stadium in Week 1. That is a heavy edge: Delaware wins about 97% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 29.7 points and 53.6 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, blowout brewing.
Merrimack is 0-1, scoring 7 and allowing 34 points per game (-27 per game). Delaware has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results.
Merrimack plays in the FCS, so this is a cross-division game. Our ratings put FCS teams on the FBS scale through a measured gap from every FBS-vs-FCS result, which is why Delaware's projected edge is large even if the records look similar. Cross-division projections are a little less precise than FBS-vs-FBS ones.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Delaware by 7 and Delaware by 52 about 80% of the time.
Delaware gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Delaware by about 27.6. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Merrimack 7, Delaware 42. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 5.3 points and the total by 4.6.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Merrimack / Delaware) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Delaware -28.5 → Delaware -31.5 | 55.5 → 56.5 | +2200 / -8000 |
| DraftKings | Delaware -28.5 → Delaware -31.5 | 55.5 → 56.5 | +2200 / -8000 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Delaware win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Delaware -29.5 | 53.6 | 97% |
| Market consensus | Delaware -31.5 | 56.5 | 96% |
| Blended projection | Delaware -31.5 | 56.6 | 98% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Delaware win probability
- model 97% · market (no-vig) 96% · difference +2 pts
- Margin
- model Delaware -29.7 · market Delaware -31.5 · difference -1.8 pts (Delaware view)
- Total
- model 53.6 · market 56.5 · difference -2.9
Model margin is 1.8 pts more toward Merrimack than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Merrimack 12.0, Delaware 41.7 | Delaware 97%right winner | 5.3 | 4.6 |
| New formula | Merrimack 11.9, Delaware 41.9 | Delaware 96%right winner | 4.9 | 4.8 |
Final: Merrimack 7, Delaware 42. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Merrimack vs Delaware: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Merrimack | Delaware |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 20.5 | 29.0#57 |
| Points allowed per game | 24.4 | 31.0#116 |
| Yards per play | 5.02 | 5.95#65 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.77 | 6.33#117 |
| Rushing yards per game | 194.0 | 129.3#117 |
| Net passing yards per game | 144.6 | 298.5#8 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 183.6 | 172.0#83 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 218.0 | 248.5#118 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.55 | 1.08#78 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.00 | 1.15#60 |
| Sacks per game | 1.09 | 1.92#74 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.73 | 2.08#90 |
| Stat | Merrimack | Delaware |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.06 | +0.02#78 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.04 | +0.09#116 |
| Success rate | 36.6% | 42.5%#66 |
| Success rate allowed | 43.3% | 43.0%#90 |
| Explosive play rate | 12.2% | 11.4%#98 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 16.7% | 12.8%#81 |
| Havoc rate | 12.6% | 11.4%#103 |
| Havoc allowed | 13.9% | 11.7%#60 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.53 | 3.70#97 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.21 | 4.00#86 |
| Average starting field position | opp 14 | own 29#80 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 12 | own 31#99 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 67.5 | 71.9#13 |
| Stat | Merrimack | Delaware |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.01 | -0.04#105 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.15 | +0.06#56 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.00 | +0.01#73 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.07 | +0.17#122 |
| Rushing success rate | 39.4% | 43.1%#69 |
| Passing success rate | 32.8% | 43.3%#45 |
| Run stuff rate | 21.5% | 20.3%#104 |
| Passing-down success rate | 31.0% | 27.6%#100 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 27.4% | 35.4%#126 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 39.8% | 43.4%#44 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 34.9% | 42.0%#86 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 43.8% | 61.2%#68 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 52.1% | 57.9%#52 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Merrimack schedule · Delaware schedule · all Week 1 projections
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