Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Maine 26.7, Merrimack 18.4 at Harold Alfond Sports Stadium in Week 2. That is a solid edge: Maine wins about 71% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 8.3 points and 45.1 combined points.
Merrimack is 0-2, scoring 7 and allowing 38 points per game (-31 per game). Maine is 1-1, scoring 12 and allowing 36.5 points per game (-24.5 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Merrimack by 14 and Maine by 31 about 80% of the time.
Maine gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Maine by about 6.2.
Result: Merrimack 23, Maine 14. Merrimack won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 17.3 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Merrimack / Maine) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Maine -10 | 47.5 | +314 / -431 |
| DraftKings | Maine -10 | 47.5 | +314 / -431 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Maine win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Maine -8.5 | 45.1 | 71% |
| Market consensus | Maine -10 | 47.5 | 77% |
| Blended projection | Maine -10 | 48.4 | 75% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Maine win probability
- model 71% · market (no-vig) 77% · difference -6 pts
- Margin
- model Maine -8.3 · market Maine -10 · difference -1.7 pts (Maine view)
- Total
- model 45.1 · market 47.5 · difference -2.4
Model margin is 1.7 pts more toward Merrimack than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Merrimack 18.4, Maine 26.7 | Maine 71%wrong winner | 17.3 | 8.1 |
| New formula | Merrimack 19.2, Maine 28.6 | Maine 72%wrong winner | 18.4 | 10.8 |
Final: Merrimack 23, Maine 14. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Merrimack vs Maine: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Merrimack | Maine |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 20.5 | 24.2 |
| Points allowed per game | 24.4 | 24.3 |
| Yards per play | 5.02 | 5.55 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.77 | 5.50 |
| Rushing yards per game | 194.0 | 168.8 |
| Net passing yards per game | 144.6 | 173.4 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 183.6 | 147.2 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 218.0 | 192.8 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.55 | 0.83 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.00 | 0.92 |
| Sacks per game | 1.09 | 2.42 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.73 | 1.33 |
| Stat | Merrimack | Maine |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.06 | -0.06 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.04 | -0.02 |
| Success rate | 36.6% | 39.8% |
| Success rate allowed | 43.3% | 42.1% |
| Explosive play rate | 12.2% | 11.4% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 16.7% | 12.0% |
| Havoc rate | 12.6% | 12.4% |
| Havoc allowed | 13.9% | 15.2% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.53 | 2.49 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.21 | 4.12 |
| Average starting field position | opp 14 | opp 13 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 12 | opp 12 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 67.5 | 61.7 |
| Stat | Merrimack | Maine |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.01 | -0.06 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.15 | -0.06 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.00 | -0.02 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.07 | -0.01 |
| Rushing success rate | 39.4% | 41.1% |
| Passing success rate | 32.8% | 40.9% |
| Run stuff rate | 21.5% | 22.5% |
| Passing-down success rate | 31.0% | 30.8% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 27.4% | 28.9% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 39.8% | 34.5% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 34.9% | 46.1% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 43.8% | 42.9% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 52.1% | 69.6% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Merrimack schedule · Maine schedule · all Week 2 projections
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