Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Merrimack 29.2, New Hampshire 19.1 at Duane Stadium in Week 8. That is a solid edge: Merrimack wins about 75% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 10.1 points and 48.2 combined points.
New Hampshire is 2-6, scoring 19.6 and allowing 34.4 points per game (-14.8 per game). Merrimack is 2-5, scoring 17 and allowing 30.4 points per game (-13.4 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between New Hampshire by 12 and Merrimack by 33 about 80% of the time.
Merrimack gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Merrimack by about 8. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: New Hampshire 17, Merrimack 24. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 3.1 points and the total by 7.2.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | New Hampshire 19.1, Merrimack 29.2 | Merrimack 75%right winner | 3.1 | 7.2 |
| New formula | Not recorded for this game | |||
Final: New Hampshire 17, Merrimack 24. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
New Hampshire vs Merrimack: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | New Hampshire | Merrimack |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 24.8 | 20.5 |
| Points allowed per game | 22.8 | 24.4 |
| Yards per play | 5.48 | 5.02 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.68 | 6.77 |
| Rushing yards per game | 157.8 | 194.0 |
| Net passing yards per game | 204.5 | 144.6 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 188.8 | 183.6 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 165.0 | 218.0 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.54 | 0.55 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Sacks per game | 2.15 | 1.09 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.85 | 1.73 |
| Stat | New Hampshire | Merrimack |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.01 | -0.06 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.06 | +0.04 |
| Success rate | 40.1% | 36.6% |
| Success rate allowed | 43.8% | 43.3% |
| Explosive play rate | 12.2% | 12.2% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.7% | 16.7% |
| Havoc rate | 13.2% | 12.6% |
| Havoc allowed | 12.7% | 13.9% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.01 | 3.53 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.61 | 3.21 |
| Average starting field position | opp 5 | opp 14 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 6 | opp 12 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 66.1 | 67.5 |
| Stat | New Hampshire | Merrimack |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.05 | +0.01 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.04 | -0.15 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.13 | +0.00 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.04 | +0.07 |
| Rushing success rate | 40.4% | 39.4% |
| Passing success rate | 41.1% | 32.8% |
| Run stuff rate | 19.4% | 21.5% |
| Passing-down success rate | 32.2% | 31.0% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 32.4% | 27.4% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 38.8% | 39.8% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 43.0% | 34.9% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 51.1% | 43.8% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 52.2% | 52.1% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: New Hampshire schedule · Merrimack schedule · all Week 8 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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