Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected New Haven 27.7, Stonehill 23.8 at Ralph F. DellaCamera Stadium in Week 1. That is a lean: New Haven wins about 60% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 3.9 points and 51.5 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
Stonehill is 0-1, scoring 6 and allowing 24 points per game (-18 per game). New Haven is 1-0, scoring 22 and allowing 21 points per game (+1 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Stonehill by 19 and New Haven by 26 about 80% of the time.
New Haven gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour New Haven by about 1.8.
Result: Stonehill 21, New Haven 3. Stonehill won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 21.9 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Stonehill / New Haven) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | New Haven -7 → New Haven -6.5 | 41.5 → 42.5 | +178 / -226 |
| DraftKings | New Haven -7 → New Haven -6.5 | 41.5 → 42.5 | +178 / -226 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | New Haven win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | New Haven -4 | 51.5 | 60% |
| Market consensus | New Haven -6.5 | 42.5 | 66% |
| Blended projection | New Haven -6 | 44.4 | 66% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- New Haven win probability
- model 60% · market (no-vig) 66% · difference -6 pts
- Margin
- model New Haven -3.9 · market New Haven -6.5 · difference -2.6 pts (New Haven view)
- Total
- model 51.5 · market 42.5 · difference +9.0
Model margin is 2.6 pts more toward Stonehill than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Stonehill 23.8, New Haven 27.7 | New Haven 60%wrong winner | 21.9 | 27.5 |
| New formula | Stonehill 17.8, New Haven 33.1 | New Haven 82%wrong winner | 33.3 | 26.9 |
Final: Stonehill 21, New Haven 3. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Stonehill vs New Haven: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Stonehill | New Haven |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 15.1 | 27.9 |
| Points allowed per game | 23.1 | 28.6 |
| Yards per play | 4.57 | 6.26 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.94 | 5.47 |
| Rushing yards per game | 117.6 | 154.6 |
| Net passing yards per game | 148.7 | 242.0 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 193.3 | 175.9 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 182.3 | 182.6 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.58 | 1.22 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.08 | 1.22 |
| Sacks per game | 1.25 | 2.78 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.33 | 0.89 |
| Stat | Stonehill | New Haven |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.11 | -0.03 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.01 | +0.00 |
| Success rate | 35.4% | 40.4% |
| Success rate allowed | 42.3% | 39.8% |
| Explosive play rate | 9.3% | 12.1% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.3% | 13.2% |
| Havoc rate | 11.0% | 12.8% |
| Havoc allowed | 15.4% | 11.4% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.66 | 0.00 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 2.92 | 0.00 |
| Average starting field position | opp 0 | opp 0 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 0 | opp 0 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 58.3 | 63.3 |
| Stat | Stonehill | New Haven |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.17 | -0.04 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.05 | -0.02 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.04 | -0.00 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.09 | -0.00 |
| Rushing success rate | 36.3% | 41.3% |
| Passing success rate | 34.6% | 40.3% |
| Run stuff rate | 25.1% | 22.1% |
| Passing-down success rate | 26.8% | 29.9% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 29.1% | 24.6% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 34.4% | 37.8% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 43.9% | 31.1% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 57.6% | 0.0% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 48.1% | 0.0% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Stonehill schedule · New Haven schedule · all Week 1 projections
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