Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Robert Morris 28.5, New Haven 20.5 at Joe Walton Stadium in Week 7. That is a solid edge: Robert Morris wins about 70% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 8 points and 49 combined points.
New Haven is 1-5, scoring 12.7 and allowing 29.2 points per game (-16.5 per game). Robert Morris is 3-3, scoring 25.8 and allowing 25.2 points per game (+0.6 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between New Haven by 15 and Robert Morris by 31 about 80% of the time.
Robert Morris gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Robert Morris by about 5.9. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: New Haven 26, Robert Morris 15. New Haven won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 19 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (New Haven / Robert Morris) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Robert Morris -10 → Robert Morris -9.5 | 46.5 → 45.5 | +281 / -378 |
| DraftKings | Robert Morris -10 → Robert Morris -9.5 | 46.5 → 45.5 | +281 / -378 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Robert Morris win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Robert Morris -8 | 49.0 | 70% |
| Market consensus | Robert Morris -9.5 | 45.5 | 75% |
| Blended projection | Robert Morris -9.5 | 46.9 | 74% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Robert Morris win probability
- model 70% · market (no-vig) 75% · difference -5 pts
- Margin
- model Robert Morris -8 · market Robert Morris -9.5 · difference -1.5 pts (Robert Morris view)
- Total
- model 49.0 · market 45.5 · difference +3.5
Model margin is 1.5 pts more toward New Haven than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | New Haven 20.5, Robert Morris 28.5 | Robert Morris 70%wrong winner | 19.0 | 8.0 |
| New formula | New Haven 22.6, Robert Morris 26.9 | Robert Morris 61%wrong winner | 15.3 | 8.5 |
Final: New Haven 26, Robert Morris 15. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
New Haven vs Robert Morris: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | New Haven | Robert Morris |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 27.9 | 15.2 |
| Points allowed per game | 28.6 | 24.9 |
| Yards per play | 6.26 | 5.05 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.47 | 5.74 |
| Rushing yards per game | 154.6 | 123.4 |
| Net passing yards per game | 242.0 | 161.9 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 175.9 | 203.6 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 182.6 | 164.3 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.22 | 1.18 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.22 | 0.91 |
| Sacks per game | 2.78 | 1.73 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 0.89 | 1.55 |
| Stat | New Haven | Robert Morris |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.03 | -0.15 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.00 | +0.03 |
| Success rate | 40.4% | 35.6% |
| Success rate allowed | 39.8% | 43.9% |
| Explosive play rate | 12.1% | 10.4% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.2% | 12.3% |
| Havoc rate | 12.8% | 13.6% |
| Havoc allowed | 11.4% | 14.0% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 0.00 | 3.63 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 0.00 | 3.81 |
| Average starting field position | opp 0 | opp 9 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 0 | opp 8 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 63.3 | 56.5 |
| Stat | New Haven | Robert Morris |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.04 | -0.14 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.02 | -0.15 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.00 | +0.04 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.00 | +0.01 |
| Rushing success rate | 41.3% | 36.6% |
| Passing success rate | 40.3% | 33.4% |
| Run stuff rate | 22.1% | 21.0% |
| Passing-down success rate | 29.9% | 26.1% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 24.6% | 29.3% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 37.8% | 31.1% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 31.1% | 37.6% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 0.0% | 49.9% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 0.0% | 61.0% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: New Haven schedule · Robert Morris schedule · all Week 7 projections
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