Matchup analysis
Our model projects New Haven 24, Long Island University 21 at Ralph F. DellaCamera Stadium in Week 10. That is a genuine toss-up: New Haven wins about 57% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 2.6 points and 45.1 combined points. Tags: coin flip, leans low scoring.
Long Island University is 3-6 against the 59th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 14.6 and allowing 25.9 points per game (-11.3 per game). New Haven is 2-6 against the 74th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 15.3 and allowing 29 points per game (-13.7 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Long Island University by 20 and New Haven by 25 about 80% of the time.
New Haven gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour New Haven by about 0.5.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Long Island University vs New Haven: stat comparison
| Stat | Long Island University | New Haven |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 14.6 | 15.3 |
| Points allowed per game | 25.9 | 29.0 |
| Yards per play | 4.12 | 4.62 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.03 | 6.17 |
| Rushing yards per game | 157.1 | 103.5 |
| Net passing yards per game | 90.0 | 191.5 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 143.9 | 155.8 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 238.1 | 209.0 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.78 | 1.13 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.11 | 0.88 |
| Sacks per game | 1.56 | 2.13 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.33 | 1.75 |
| Stat | Long Island University | New Haven |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.14 | -0.09 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.04 | +0.05 |
| Success rate | 32.9% | 35.7% |
| Success rate allowed | 45.9% | 40.2% |
| Explosive play rate | 8.2% | 10.1% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.8% | 13.3% |
| Havoc rate | 13.1% | 14.1% |
| Havoc allowed | 17.9% | 18.6% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 2.99 | 2.53 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.21 | 3.72 |
| Average starting field position | opp 14 | opp 0 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 13 | opp 0 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 60.0 | 63.9 |
| Stat | Long Island University | New Haven |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.10 | -0.12 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.22 | -0.07 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.01 | -0.03 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.09 | +0.12 |
| Rushing success rate | 34.9% | 33.0% |
| Passing success rate | 26.0% | 33.5% |
| Run stuff rate | 23.4% | 26.1% |
| Passing-down success rate | 25.1% | 24.2% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 29.3% | 31.4% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 29.8% | 31.3% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 46.1% | 33.7% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 42.2% | 44.2% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 62.7% | 57.6% |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Long Island University schedule · New Haven schedule · all Week 10 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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