Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected New Haven 28.4, Marist 26.2 at Ralph F. DellaCamera Stadium in Week 1. That is a genuine toss-up: New Haven wins about 56% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 2.2 points and 54.5 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
Marist has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results. New Haven has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Marist by 20 and New Haven by 25 about 80% of the time.
New Haven gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour New Haven by about 0.1.
Result: Marist 21, New Haven 22. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 1.2 points and the total by 11.5.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Marist / New Haven) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Marist -1.5 → New Haven -2.5 | 44.5 → 46.5 | +116 / -145 |
| DraftKings | Marist -1.5 → New Haven -2.5 | 44.5 → 46.5 | +116 / -145 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | New Haven win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | New Haven -2 | 54.5 | 56% |
| Market consensus | New Haven -2.5 | 46.5 | 56% |
| Blended projection | New Haven -2.5 | 48.0 | 57% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- New Haven win probability
- model 56% · market (no-vig) 56% · difference -0 pts
- Margin
- model New Haven -2.2 · market New Haven -2.5 · difference -0.3 pts (New Haven view)
- Total
- model 54.5 · market 46.5 · difference +8.0
Model and market margins agree within half a point.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Marist 26.2, New Haven 28.4 | New Haven 56%right winner | 1.2 | 11.5 |
| New formula | Marist 21.9, New Haven 33.8 | New Haven 75%right winner | 10.8 | 12.7 |
Final: Marist 21, New Haven 22. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Marist vs New Haven: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Marist | New Haven |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 22.7 | 27.9 |
| Points allowed per game | 23.5 | 28.6 |
| Yards per play | 5.23 | 6.26 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.70 | 5.47 |
| Rushing yards per game | 149.8 | 154.6 |
| Net passing yards per game | 186.0 | 242.0 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 157.9 | 175.9 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 212.3 | 182.6 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.00 | 1.22 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.42 | 1.22 |
| Sacks per game | 1.58 | 2.78 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.83 | 0.89 |
| Stat | Marist | New Haven |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.07 | -0.03 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.05 | +0.00 |
| Success rate | 34.9% | 40.4% |
| Success rate allowed | 40.4% | 39.8% |
| Explosive play rate | 11.9% | 12.1% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.9% | 13.2% |
| Havoc rate | 11.2% | 12.8% |
| Havoc allowed | 13.5% | 11.4% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.17 | 0.00 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.66 | 0.00 |
| Average starting field position | opp 0 | opp 0 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 0 | opp 0 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 64.2 | 63.3 |
| Stat | Marist | New Haven |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.05 | -0.04 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.10 | -0.02 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.10 | -0.00 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.00 | -0.00 |
| Rushing success rate | 37.8% | 41.3% |
| Passing success rate | 35.4% | 40.3% |
| Run stuff rate | 22.1% | 22.1% |
| Passing-down success rate | 26.7% | 29.9% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 29.3% | 24.6% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 30.2% | 37.8% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 40.4% | 31.1% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 0.0% | 0.0% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Marist schedule · New Haven schedule · all Week 1 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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