Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Austin Peay 39.7, New Haven 14.4 at Fortera Stadium in Week 5. That is a heavy edge: Austin Peay wins about 95% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 25.3 points and 54.1 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, blowout brewing.
New Haven is 1-4, scoring 11.8 and allowing 26.6 points per game (-14.8 per game). Austin Peay is 4-1, scoring 36 and allowing 16 points per game (+20 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Austin Peay by 3 and Austin Peay by 48 about 80% of the time.
Austin Peay gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Austin Peay by about 23.2. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: New Haven 17, Austin Peay 42. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 0.3 points and the total by 4.9.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (New Haven / Austin Peay) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Austin Peay -35.5 | 50.5 | — / — |
| DraftKings | Austin Peay -35.5 | 50.5 | — / — |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Austin Peay win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Austin Peay -25.5 | 54.1 | 95% |
| Market consensus | Austin Peay -35.5 | 50.5 | 99% |
| Blended projection | Austin Peay -34 | 51.5 | 99% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Austin Peay win probability
- model 95% · market (no-vig) —
- Margin
- model Austin Peay -25.3 · market Austin Peay -35.5 · difference -10.2 pts (Austin Peay view)
- Total
- model 54.1 · market 50.5 · difference +3.6
Model margin is 10.2 pts more toward New Haven than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | New Haven 14.4, Austin Peay 39.7 | Austin Peay 95%right winner | 0.3 | 4.9 |
| New formula | New Haven 15.0, Austin Peay 38.2 | Austin Peay 94%right winner | 1.7 | 5.8 |
Final: New Haven 17, Austin Peay 42. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
New Haven vs Austin Peay: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | New Haven | Austin Peay |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 27.9 | 35.1 |
| Points allowed per game | 28.6 | 27.3 |
| Yards per play | 6.26 | 6.90 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.47 | 5.58 |
| Rushing yards per game | 154.6 | 195.7 |
| Net passing yards per game | 242.0 | 260.6 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 175.9 | 142.2 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 182.6 | 234.3 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.22 | 0.83 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.22 | 0.75 |
| Sacks per game | 2.78 | 2.25 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 0.89 | 1.58 |
| Stat | New Haven | Austin Peay |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.03 | +0.12 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.00 | -0.01 |
| Success rate | 40.4% | 45.6% |
| Success rate allowed | 39.8% | 42.7% |
| Explosive play rate | 12.1% | 14.3% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.2% | 11.3% |
| Havoc rate | 12.8% | 12.0% |
| Havoc allowed | 11.4% | 10.7% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 0.00 | 3.77 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 0.00 | 3.74 |
| Average starting field position | opp 0 | opp 11 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 0 | opp 11 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 63.3 | 66.2 |
| Stat | New Haven | Austin Peay |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.04 | +0.10 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.02 | +0.14 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.00 | +0.01 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.00 | -0.03 |
| Rushing success rate | 41.3% | 45.1% |
| Passing success rate | 40.3% | 46.0% |
| Run stuff rate | 22.1% | 17.7% |
| Passing-down success rate | 29.9% | 38.1% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 24.6% | 28.6% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 37.8% | 46.1% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 31.1% | 38.0% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 0.0% | 57.3% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 0.0% | 62.7% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: New Haven schedule · Austin Peay schedule · all Week 5 projections
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