Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Northwestern 37.7, South Dakota State 10.5 at Northwestern Medicine Field at Martin Stadium in Week 1. That is a heavy edge: Northwestern wins about 96% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 27.2 points and 48.1 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, blowout brewing.
South Dakota State is 1-0, scoring 70 and allowing 7 points per game (+63 per game). Northwestern has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results.
South Dakota State plays in the FCS, so this is a cross-division game. Our ratings put FCS teams on the FBS scale through a measured gap from every FBS-vs-FCS result, which is why Northwestern's projected edge is large even if the records look similar. Cross-division projections are a little less precise than FBS-vs-FBS ones.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Northwestern by 5 and Northwestern by 50 about 80% of the time.
Northwestern gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Northwestern by about 25.1. The game is on BTN.
Result: South Dakota State 18, Northwestern 34. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 11.2 points and the total by 3.9.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (South Dakota State / Northwestern) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Northwestern -12.5 → Northwestern -13.25 | 46.25 → 49 | +407.5 / -562.5 |
| DraftKings | Northwestern -12.5 → Northwestern -14 | 46.5 → 49.5 | +440 / -600 |
| Bovada | Northwestern -12.5 | 46 → 48.5 | +375 / -525 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Northwestern win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Northwestern -27 | 48.1 | 96% |
| Market consensus | Northwestern -13.5 | 49.0 | 81% |
| Blended projection | Northwestern -15.5 | 49.8 | 86% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Northwestern win probability
- model 96% · market (no-vig) 81% · difference +15 pts
- Margin
- model Northwestern -27.2 · market Northwestern -13.25 · difference +14.0 pts (Northwestern view)
- Total
- model 48.1 · market 49 · difference -0.9
Model margin is 14.0 pts more toward Northwestern than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | South Dakota State 10.5, Northwestern 37.7 | Northwestern 96%right winner | 11.2 | 3.9 |
| New formula | South Dakota State 19.5, Northwestern 32.6 | Northwestern 78%right winner | 3.0 | 0.1 |
Final: South Dakota State 18, Northwestern 34. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
South Dakota State vs Northwestern: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | South Dakota State | Northwestern |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 28.6 | 23.4#98 |
| Points allowed per game | 21.9 | 19.8#23 |
| Yards per play | 5.56 | 5.52#99 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.21 | 5.94#86 |
| Rushing yards per game | 169.6 | 162.8#76 |
| Net passing yards per game | 212.8 | 190.3#101 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 132.3 | 160.8#68 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 184.8 | 183.1#22 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.25 | 1.08#82 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.25 | 0.85#94 |
| Sacks per game | 1.92 | 1.77#91 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.25 | 1.31#24 |
| Stat | South Dakota State | Northwestern |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.05 | -0.00#90 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.11 | +0.04#90 |
| Success rate | 43.5% | 43.5%#54 |
| Success rate allowed | 40.4% | 45.3%#120 |
| Explosive play rate | 11.4% | 11.4%#100 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 10.8% | 11.9%#58 |
| Havoc rate | 14.8% | 10.9%#112 |
| Havoc allowed | 14.2% | 13.3%#102 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 0.87 | 3.78#90 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 0.54 | 3.77#60 |
| Average starting field position | opp 0 | own 30#62 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 0 | own 30#71 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 68.8 | 63.9#99 |
| Stat | South Dakota State | Northwestern |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.05 | +0.01#83 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.05 | -0.02#90 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.10 | +0.10#120 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.11 | -0.02#53 |
| Rushing success rate | 43.7% | 45.7%#45 |
| Passing success rate | 43.8% | 41.3%#63 |
| Run stuff rate | 18.1% | 17.6%#56 |
| Passing-down success rate | 35.3% | 33.6%#33 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 28.5% | 33.8%#118 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 42.7% | 46.0%#32 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 32.9% | 45.1%#114 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 13.7% | 45.8%#130 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 8.9% | 62.5%#86 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: South Dakota State schedule · Northwestern schedule · all Week 1 projections
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