2026 schedule
Northwestern Wildcats
2026 season so far
Northwestern (No. 20) is 6-1 against the 43rd-toughest schedule so far, scoring 34.7 and allowing 16.6 points per game (+18.1 per game).
In our opponent-adjusted ratings Northwestern ranks 33rd of 139 FBS teams overall — 44th on offense and 29th on defense. The defense is the stronger unit.
Next up: at Oregon in Week 9. We project Northwestern 18, Oregon 32 — Northwestern wins 17% of the time.
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Regular season
12 gamesMarket lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
- vs
South Dakota State Jackrabbits
1-1 · SOS #51
Win 34-18
Week 1
Our number· pregame
Northwestern by 27.2
Total 48.2
DraftKings
NU -14
Total 49.5
Final Northwestern by 16. Northwestern beat the spread. 52 points — over the 49.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
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Market lines: Northwestern -13.25 (open Northwestern -12.5) · O/U 49 (open 46.25) · ML +407.5 / -562.5 · Northwestern 81% no-vig · model vs market +14.0 pts, +15 pct pts (Northwestern view)
BTN Northwestern Medicine Field at Martin Stadium - vs
Colorado Buffaloes
2-1 · SOS #21
Win 41-7
Week 3
Our number· pregame
Northwestern by 4.4
Total 47.4
DraftKings
NU -3.5
Total 47.5
Final Northwestern by 34. Northwestern beat the spread. 48 points — over the 47.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Northwestern -3.5 (open Northwestern -4.5) · O/U 47.75 (open 46.25) · ML +155 / -185 · Northwestern 62% no-vig · model vs market +0.9 pts, -1 pct pts (Northwestern view)
Fox Northwestern Medicine Field at Martin Stadium - at
#5 Indiana Hoosiers
4-0 · SOS #31
Loss 23-29
Week 4
Our number· pregame
Indiana by 5.9
Total 48.9
DraftKings
IU -20.5
Total 49.5
Final Indiana by 6. Northwestern beat the spread. 52 points — over the 49.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Indiana -20.25 (open Indiana -22.5) · O/U 49.75 (open 48.75) · ML +925 / -1775 · Indiana 91% no-vig · model vs market -14.3 pts, -26 pct pts (Indiana view)
Fox Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN) - vs
Penn State Nittany Lions
3-2 · SOS #46
Win 34-13
Week 5
Our number· pregame
Northwestern by 1.6
Total 48.2
DraftKings
PSU -3
Total 46.5
Final Northwestern by 21. Northwestern beat the spread. 47 points — over the 46.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Penn State -2.75 (open Penn State -5) · O/U 46.75 (open 47.75) · ML -132.5 / +112 · Northwestern 45% no-vig · model vs market +4.3 pts, +9 pct pts (Northwestern view)
Fox Ryan Field - vs
Ball State Cardinals
1-5 · SOS #86
Win 45-14
Week 6
Our number· pregame
Northwestern by 30.2
Total 52
DraftKings
NU -34.5
Total 53.5
Final Northwestern by 31. Ball State beat the spread. 59 points — over the 53.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Northwestern -34.75 (open Northwestern -36.25) · O/U 53.25 (open 52.75) · model vs market -4.5 pts (Northwestern view)
BTN Ryan Field - at
Michigan State Spartans
2-5 · SOS #7
Win 24-21
Week 7
Our number· pregame
Northwestern by 9.5
Total 49.1
DraftKings
NU -7.5
Total 50.5
Final Northwestern by 3. Michigan State beat the spread. 45 points — under the 50.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Northwestern -7.25 (open Northwestern -8.5) · O/U 50.25 (open 48) · ML -324 / +257.5 · Michigan State 27% no-vig · model vs market -2.2 pts, -0 pct pts (Michigan State view)
Peacock Spartan Stadium - vs
Rutgers Scarlet Knights
2-5 · SOS #51
Win 42-14
Week 8
Our number· pregame
Northwestern by 11.3
Total 58.1
DraftKings
NU -15.5
Total 58.5
Final Northwestern by 28. Northwestern beat the spread. 56 points — under the 58.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Northwestern -15.5 · O/U 58.5 · ML +525 / -800 · Northwestern 85% no-vig · model vs market -4.2 pts, -8 pct pts (Northwestern view)
Peacock Ryan Field - at
Oregon Ducks
4-3 · SOS #20
Sat, Oct 31, 7:30 PM
Week 9
Proj 18-32 · 17%
Our number
Oregon by 14
Total 50
DraftKings
ORE -3.5
Total 47.5
We're 10.5 points higher on Oregon than the book. Shown for comparison only.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Oregon -3.5 · O/U 47.5 · ML +145 / -172.5 · Oregon 61% no-vig · model vs market +10.5 pts, +22 pct pts (Oregon view)
Peacock Autzen Stadium - vs
Iowa Hawkeyes
5-2 · SOS #39
Sat, Nov 7 · TBD
Week 10
Proj 21-26 · 38%
Our number
Iowa by 5
Total 47
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Ryan Field - at
#2 Ohio State Buckeyes
6-1 · SOS #19
Sat, Nov 14 · TBD
Week 11
Proj 14-36 · 7%
Our number
Ohio State by 22
Total 50
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Ohio Stadium - at
Minnesota Golden Gophers
5-2 · SOS #75
Sat, Nov 21 · TBD
Week 12
Proj 26-21 · 62%
Our number
Northwestern by 5
Total 47
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Huntington Bank Stadium - vs
Illinois Fighting Illini
4-3 · SOS #26
Sat, Nov 28 · TBD
Week 13
Proj 29-24 · 63%
Our number
Northwestern by 5
Total 53
DraftKings
ILL -3.5
Total 52.5
We're 8.5 points higher on Northwestern than the book. Shown for comparison only.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Illinois -3.5 · O/U 52.5 · ML -175 / +145 · Northwestern 39% no-vig · model vs market +8.5 pts, +24 pct pts (Northwestern view)
Ryan Field
Times shown in your local time
Northwestern Wildcats stats: basic, advanced and situational
Basic stats
Box-score numbers per game.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Points per gameEvery point scored, every game. | 34.7 | 35 / 138 |
| Points allowed per gameEvery point conceded, every game. | 16.6 | 22 / 138 |
| Yards per playScrimmage yards divided by scrimmage plays (sacks count as pass plays). | 6.92 | 16 / 138 |
| Yards per play allowedThe same measure for opponents. | 5.46 | 59 / 138 |
| Rushing yards per gameDesigned runs and scrambles. | 216.0 | 21 / 138 |
| Net passing yards per gamePassing yards minus sack yardage. | 215.3 | 82 / 138 |
| Rushing yards allowed per gameOpponents' rushing yards. | 169.6 | 92 / 138 |
| Net passing yards allowed per gameOpponents' net passing yards. | 205.3 | 67 / 138 |
| Turnovers per gameInterceptions thrown and fumbles lost. | 0.43 | 18 / 138 |
| Takeaways per gameInterceptions and fumble recoveries. | 1.43 | 12 / 138 |
| Sacks per gameSacks by this defense. | 1.86 | 81 / 138 |
| Sacks allowed per gameSacks taken by this offense. | 2.14 | 90 / 138 |
Advanced stats
Efficiency from play-by-play, garbage time removed: expected points added (EPA), success rate, explosiveness, havoc, finishing drives, field position and pace.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per playExpected points added per snap, garbage time removed. Zero is average; +0.10 is very good. | +0.23 | 11 / 138 |
| EPA per play allowedExpected points the defense gives up per snap. Lower is better. | +0.01 | 50 / 138 |
| Success rateShare of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the distance on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th. | 50.5% | 10 / 138 |
| Success rate allowedOpponents' success rate. | 41.8% | 76 / 138 |
| Explosive play rateRuns of 12+ yards and passes of 16+ yards, as a share of plays. | 18.3% | 2 / 138 |
| Explosive plays allowedThe same rate for opponents. | 10.5% | 35 / 138 |
| Havoc rateShare of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass break-up. | 13.3% | 87 / 138 |
| Havoc allowedHow often this offense suffers a havoc play. | 14.1% | 94 / 138 |
| Points per scoring opportunityFinishing drives: points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40. | 4.79 | 22 / 138 |
| Points per opportunity allowedHow well the defense holds once opponents cross its 40. | 2.71 | 2 / 138 |
| Average starting field positionWhere this offense's drives begin, on average. | own 29 | 84 / 138 |
| Opponents' starting field positionWhere opponents' drives begin. | own 27 | 36 / 138 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace)Scrimmage snaps per game; a tempo measure. | 62.3 | 106 / 138 |
Situational stats
Run vs pass splits, passing downs, third downs and the red zone.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per playExpected points added on runs. | +0.16 | 24 / 138 |
| Passing EPA per playExpected points added on dropbacks, sacks included. | +0.31 | 13 / 138 |
| Rushing EPA allowedRun defense, per play. | +0.13 | 120 / 138 |
| Passing EPA allowedPass defense, per dropback. | -0.09 | 26 / 138 |
| Rushing success rateShare of runs that stay on schedule. | 47.8% | 32 / 138 |
| Passing success rateShare of dropbacks that stay on schedule. | 53.9% | 6 / 138 |
| Run stuff rateRuns stopped at or behind the line. | 20.1% | 115 / 138 |
| Passing-down success rateSuccess on 2nd-and-8+ and 3rd/4th-and-5+. | 40.0% | 10 / 138 |
| Passing-down success allowedHow often opponents escape long-yardage downs. | 27.3% | 39 / 138 |
| Third-down conversion rateThird downs converted by the play itself. | 47.6% | 25 / 138 |
| Third-down rate allowedOpponents' third-down conversions. | 38.5% | 68 / 138 |
| Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown. | 74.2% | 16 / 138 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowedOpponents' red-zone touchdown rate. | 42.9% | 11 / 138 |
Power rating = projected margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field, from our opponent-adjusted efficiency model. How it works and how accurate it has been.
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