Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Indiana 27.4, Northwestern 21.5 at Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN) in Week 4. That is a lean: Indiana wins about 65% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 5.9 points and 48.8 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
Northwestern is 2-0, scoring 37.5 and allowing 12.5 points per game (+25 per game). Indiana (No. 5) is 3-0, scoring 48.3 and allowing 5.3 points per game (+43 per game).
Indiana's elite defense (6th) should limit Northwestern's middle-of-the-pack offense (61st of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 27.2 points against an average defense). The most lopsided unit battle: Indiana's elite offense (9th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 37.2 points against an average defense) against Northwestern's strong defense (35th).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Northwestern by 17 and Indiana by 28 about 80% of the time.
Indiana gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Indiana by about 3.8. The game is on Fox.
Result: Northwestern 23, Indiana 29. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 0.1 points and the total by 3.2.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Northwestern / Indiana) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Indiana -22.5 → Indiana -20.25 | 48.75 → 49.75 | +925 / -1775 |
| DraftKings | Indiana -23.5 → Indiana -20.5 | 47.5 → 49.5 | +950 / -1650 |
| Bovada | Indiana -21.5 → Indiana -20 | 50 | +900 / -1900 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Indiana win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Indiana -6 | 48.8 | 65% |
| Market consensus | Indiana -20.5 | 49.8 | 91% |
| Blended projection | Indiana -18 | 50.5 | 89% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Indiana win probability
- model 65% · market (no-vig) 91% · difference -26 pts
- Margin
- model Indiana -5.9 · market Indiana -20.25 · difference -14.3 pts (Indiana view)
- Total
- model 48.8 · market 49.75 · difference -1.0
Model margin is 14.3 pts more toward Northwestern than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Northwestern 21.5, Indiana 27.4 | Indiana 65%right winner | 0.1 | 3.2 |
| New formula | Northwestern 11.9, Indiana 37.2 | Indiana 94%right winner | 19.3 | 2.8 |
Final: Northwestern 23, Indiana 29. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Northwestern vs Indiana: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Northwestern | Indiana |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 37.5#45 | 48.3#6 |
| Points allowed per game | 12.5#20 | 5.3#2 |
| Yards per play | 7.13#26 | 8.01#8 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.44#72 | 4.28#15 |
| Rushing yards per game | 202.0#43 | 226.3#33 |
| Net passing yards per game | 247.0#52 | 235.7#63 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 174.0#104 | 91.3#14 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 231.0#100 | 154.0#24 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.50#41 | 0.00#4 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.50#25 | 1.33#34 |
| Sacks per game | 1.50#92 | 2.33#38 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.50#71 | 1.33#63 |
| Stat | Northwestern | Indiana |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.25#12 | +0.09#71 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.03#72 | -0.05#35 |
| Success rate | 50.9%#14 | 43.0%#75 |
| Success rate allowed | 41.7%#93 | 38.0%#42 |
| Explosive play rate | 16.7%#13 | 14.1%#48 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.2%#80 | 11.2%#64 |
| Havoc rate | 15.1%#52 | 12.9%#92 |
| Havoc allowed | 12.0%#49 | 13.4%#77 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 5.23#13 | 4.32#60 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 1.80#3 | 3.16#21 |
| Average starting field position | own 31#65 | own 37#8 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 28#70 | own 27#43 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 63.0#95 | 57.7#122 |
| Stat | Northwestern | Indiana |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.12#51 | +0.01#98 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.44#7 | +0.21#49 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.09#104 | -0.03#53 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.01#59 | -0.06#39 |
| Rushing success rate | 46.8%#53 | 43.6%#87 |
| Passing success rate | 56.5%#11 | 63.5%#2 |
| Run stuff rate | 22.1%#120 | 14.3%#37 |
| Passing-down success rate | 37.5%#26 | 33.8%#54 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 23.7%#25 | 28.8%#69 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 44.0%#63 | 48.3%#39 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 38.7%#72 | 32.6%#45 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 70.0%#45 | 67.4%#56 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 12.5%#1 | 50.8%#48 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Northwestern schedule · Indiana schedule · all Week 4 projections
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