Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Northwestern 25.9, Colorado 21.5 at Northwestern Medicine Field at Martin Stadium in Week 3. That is a lean: Northwestern wins about 61% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 4.4 points and 47.4 combined points. Tags: upset alert, leans low scoring.
Colorado is 2-0, scoring 33 and allowing 17 points per game (+16 per game). Northwestern is 1-0, scoring 34 and allowing 18 points per game (+16 per game).
Expect Colorado to find it hard going: Northwestern's middle-of-the-pack defense (44th) outranks Colorado's middle-of-the-pack offense (65th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 26.8 points against an average defense). Northwestern's middle-of-the-pack offense (70th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 26.2 points against an average defense) meets Colorado's middle-of-the-pack defense (59th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Northwestern puts up.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Colorado by 18 and Northwestern by 27 about 80% of the time.
Northwestern gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Northwestern by about 2.3. The game is on Fox.
Result: Colorado 7, Northwestern 41. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 29.6 points and the total by 0.6.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Colorado / Northwestern) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Northwestern -4.5 → Northwestern -3.5 | 46.25 → 47.75 | +155 / -185 |
| DraftKings | Northwestern -4.5 → Northwestern -3.5 | 45.5 → 47.5 | +145 / -175 |
| Bovada | Northwestern -4.5 → Northwestern -3.5 | 47 → 48 | +165 / -195 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Northwestern win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Northwestern -4.5 | 47.4 | 61% |
| Market consensus | Northwestern -3.5 | 47.8 | 62% |
| Blended projection | Northwestern -3.5 | 48.7 | 60% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Northwestern win probability
- model 61% · market (no-vig) 62% · difference -1 pts
- Margin
- model Northwestern -4.4 · market Northwestern -3.5 · difference +0.9 pts (Northwestern view)
- Total
- model 47.4 · market 47.75 · difference -0.4
Model margin is 0.9 pts more toward Northwestern than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Colorado 21.5, Northwestern 25.9 | Northwestern 61%right winner | 29.6 | 0.6 |
| New formula | Colorado 20.5, Northwestern 29.6 | Northwestern 71%right winner | 24.9 | 2.2 |
Final: Colorado 7, Northwestern 41. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Colorado vs Northwestern: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Colorado | Northwestern |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 20.9#116 | 23.4#98 |
| Points allowed per game | 30.5#112 | 19.8#23 |
| Yards per play | 5.23#118 | 5.52#99 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.29#113 | 5.94#86 |
| Rushing yards per game | 147.8#93 | 162.8#76 |
| Net passing yards per game | 192.9#99 | 190.3#101 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 222.5#132 | 160.8#68 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 207.1#50 | 183.1#22 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.17#92 | 1.08#82 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.08#64 | 0.85#94 |
| Sacks per game | 1.17#122 | 1.77#91 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 3.33#130 | 1.31#24 |
| Stat | Colorado | Northwestern |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.01#94 | -0.00#90 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.03#83 | +0.04#90 |
| Success rate | 34.7%#133 | 43.5%#54 |
| Success rate allowed | 43.0%#88 | 45.3%#120 |
| Explosive play rate | 11.0%#111 | 11.4%#100 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 14.7%#126 | 11.9%#58 |
| Havoc rate | 11.9%#87 | 10.9%#112 |
| Havoc allowed | 14.9%#122 | 13.3%#102 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.12#47 | 3.78#90 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.08#94 | 3.77#60 |
| Average starting field position | own 29#86 | own 30#62 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 31#109 | own 30#71 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 65.2#82 | 63.9#99 |
| Stat | Colorado | Northwestern |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.01#79 | +0.01#83 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.03#96 | -0.02#90 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.00#65 | +0.10#120 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.08#98 | -0.02#53 |
| Rushing success rate | 35.1%#132 | 45.7%#45 |
| Passing success rate | 34.4%#126 | 41.3%#63 |
| Run stuff rate | 22.4%#124 | 17.6%#56 |
| Passing-down success rate | 29.6%#81 | 33.6%#33 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 29.2%#66 | 33.8%#118 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 37.6%#104 | 46.0%#32 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 36.9%#36 | 45.1%#114 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 62.5%#59 | 45.8%#130 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 65.9%#107 | 62.5%#86 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Colorado schedule · Northwestern schedule · all Week 3 projections
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