Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Northwestern 41.1, Ball State 10.9 at Ryan Field in Week 6. That is a heavy edge: Northwestern wins about 98% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 30.2 points and 51.9 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, blowout brewing.
Ball State is 1-4, scoring 19.2 and allowing 37.8 points per game (-18.6 per game). Northwestern is 3-1, scoring 33 and allowing 16.8 points per game (+16.2 per game).
Expect Ball State to find it hard going: Northwestern's strong defense (25th) outranks Ball State's struggling offense (131st of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 17.1 points against an average defense). Northwestern's middle-of-the-pack offense (45th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 29.6 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Ball State's struggling defense (135th); that mismatch is where most of Northwestern's projected points come from.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Northwestern by 8 and Northwestern by 53 about 80% of the time.
Northwestern gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Northwestern by about 28.1. The game is on BTN.
Result: Ball State 14, Northwestern 45. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 0.8 points and the total by 7.1.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Ball State / Northwestern) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Northwestern -36.25 → Northwestern -34.75 | 52.75 → 53.25 | — / — |
| Bovada | Northwestern -36 → Northwestern -35 | 53 | — / — |
| DraftKings | Northwestern -36.5 → Northwestern -34.5 | 52.5 → 53.5 | — / — |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Northwestern win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Northwestern -30 | 51.9 | 98% |
| Market consensus | Northwestern -35 | 53.3 | 99% |
| Blended projection | Northwestern -34 | 53.7 | 99% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Northwestern win probability
- model 98% · market (no-vig) —
- Margin
- model Northwestern -30.2 · market Northwestern -34.75 · difference -4.6 pts (Northwestern view)
- Total
- model 51.9 · market 53.25 · difference -1.4
Model margin is 4.6 pts more toward Ball State than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Ball State 10.9, Northwestern 41.1 | Northwestern 98%right winner | 0.8 | 7.1 |
| New formula | Ball State 11.1, Northwestern 41.3 | Northwestern 98%right winner | 0.8 | 6.7 |
Final: Ball State 14, Northwestern 45. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Ball State vs Northwestern: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Ball State | Northwestern |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 19.2#119 | 33.0#59 |
| Points allowed per game | 37.8#132 | 16.8#30 |
| Yards per play | 5.09#128 | 6.95#22 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.88#128 | 5.60#72 |
| Rushing yards per game | 131.2#115 | 225.8#24 |
| Net passing yards per game | 169.0#118 | 205.0#90 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 235.2#134 | 174.0#103 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 246.6#114 | 219.3#87 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.00#87 | 0.50#35 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.60#110 | 1.25#27 |
| Sacks per game | 1.00#128 | 1.50#101 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.20#97 | 2.00#89 |
| Stat | Ball State | Northwestern |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.02#106 | +0.22#18 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.15#119 | +0.04#73 |
| Success rate | 34.3%#135 | 50.4%#12 |
| Success rate allowed | 43.2%#98 | 43.5%#100 |
| Explosive play rate | 10.8%#113 | 16.8%#7 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 14.5%#120 | 12.3%#86 |
| Havoc rate | 12.2%#108 | 14.6%#57 |
| Havoc allowed | 14.3%#100 | 12.8%#64 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.95#82 | 4.67#36 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.87#130 | 2.90#9 |
| Average starting field position | own 27#115 | own 28#90 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 30#83 | own 28#52 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 59.0#122 | 62.0#105 |
| Stat | Ball State | Northwestern |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.01#101 | +0.16#30 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.02#93 | +0.29#20 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.05#81 | +0.11#109 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.26#124 | -0.02#50 |
| Rushing success rate | 29.7%#138 | 49.2%#29 |
| Passing success rate | 37.9%#109 | 52.1%#16 |
| Run stuff rate | 23.3%#134 | 19.2%#102 |
| Passing-down success rate | 27.5%#105 | 36.1%#30 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 34.7%#118 | 24.6%#25 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 30.0%#130 | 41.7%#72 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 46.5%#124 | 43.3%#109 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 54.5%#106 | 72.2%#23 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 84.2%#132 | 40.0%#8 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Ball State schedule · Northwestern schedule · all Week 6 projections
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