Matchup analysis
Our model projects Ohio State 37, Northwestern 14 at Ohio Stadium in Week 11. That is a heavy edge: Ohio State wins about 93% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 22.5 points and 50.5 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, blowout brewing.
Northwestern (No. 20) is 6-1 against the 46th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 34.7 and allowing 16.6 points per game (+18.1 per game). Ohio State (No. 2) is 6-1 against the 17th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 39.3 and allowing 13.4 points per game (+25.9 per game).
Ohio State's elite defense (2nd) should limit Northwestern's middle-of-the-pack offense (45th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 29.6 points against an average defense). The most lopsided unit battle: Ohio State's elite offense (4th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 40.2 points against an average defense) against Northwestern's strong defense (29th).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between a tie and Ohio State by 45 about 80% of the time.
Ohio State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Ohio State by about 20.4.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
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Northwestern vs Ohio State: stat comparison
| Stat | Northwestern | Ohio State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 34.7#35 | 39.3#10 |
| Points allowed per game | 16.6#22 | 13.4#4 |
| Yards per play | 6.92#16 | 7.21#8 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.46#59 | 4.33#2 |
| Rushing yards per game | 216.0#21 | 169.3#64 |
| Net passing yards per game | 215.3#82 | 324.9#6 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 169.6#92 | 106.3#8 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 205.3#67 | 163.0#14 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.43#18 | 1.14#106 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.43#12 | 1.00#52 |
| Sacks per game | 1.86#81 | 1.43#112 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.14#90 | 2.14#91 |
| Stat | Northwestern | Ohio State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.23#11 | +0.19#22 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.01#50 | -0.07#17 |
| Success rate | 50.5%#10 | 50.4%#11 |
| Success rate allowed | 41.8%#76 | 34.8%#11 |
| Explosive play rate | 18.3%#2 | 14.7%#26 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 10.5%#35 | 10.1%#23 |
| Havoc rate | 13.3%#87 | 14.8%#49 |
| Havoc allowed | 14.1%#94 | 13.0%#60 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.79#22 | 5.05#7 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 2.71#2 | 3.38#29 |
| Average starting field position | own 29#84 | own 32#34 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 27#36 | own 26#16 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 62.3#106 | 68.6#41 |
| Stat | Northwestern | Ohio State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.16#24 | +0.06#82 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.31#13 | +0.33#11 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.13#120 | -0.02#41 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.09#26 | -0.12#19 |
| Rushing success rate | 47.8%#32 | 47.4%#37 |
| Passing success rate | 53.9%#6 | 53.4%#8 |
| Run stuff rate | 20.1%#115 | 15.8%#44 |
| Passing-down success rate | 40.0%#10 | 34.0%#37 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 27.3%#39 | 29.0%#61 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 47.6%#25 | 45.5%#35 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 38.5%#68 | 38.4%#65 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 74.2%#16 | 65.6%#48 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 42.9%#11 | 46.2%#17 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Northwestern schedule · Ohio State schedule · all Week 11 projections
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