Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Northwestern 24.9, Penn State 23.3 at Ryan Field in Week 5. That is a genuine toss-up: Northwestern wins about 54% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 1.6 points and 48.1 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
Penn State is 3-1, scoring 36.8 and allowing 11.5 points per game (+25.3 per game). Northwestern is 2-1, scoring 32.7 and allowing 18 points per game (+14.7 per game).
Northwestern's strong defense (27th) should limit Penn State's middle-of-the-pack offense (48th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 28.5 points against an average defense). Expect Northwestern to find it hard going: Penn State's strong defense (21st) outranks Northwestern's middle-of-the-pack offense (46th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 28.9 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Penn State by 21 and Northwestern by 24 about 80% of the time.
Northwestern gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field Penn State would be favoured by 0.5. The game is on Fox.
Result: Penn State 13, Northwestern 34. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 19.4 points and the total by 1.1.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Penn State / Northwestern) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Penn State -5 → Penn State -2.75 | 47.75 → 46.75 | -132.5 / +112 |
| DraftKings | Penn State -7 → Penn State -3 | 48.5 → 46.5 | -135 / +114 |
| Bovada | Penn State -3 → Penn State -2.5 | 47 | -130 / +110 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Northwestern win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Northwestern -1.5 | 48.1 | 54% |
| Market consensus | Penn State -2.5 | 46.8 | 45% |
| Blended projection | Penn State -2 | 47.9 | 44% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Northwestern win probability
- model 54% · market (no-vig) 45% · difference +9 pts
- Margin
- model Northwestern -1.6 · market Penn State -2.75 · difference +4.4 pts (Northwestern view)
- Total
- model 48.1 · market 46.75 · difference +1.4
Model margin is 4.4 pts more toward Northwestern than the market.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Penn State 23.3, Northwestern 24.9 | Northwestern 54%right winner | 19.4 | 1.1 |
| New formula | Penn State 22.5, Northwestern 25.3 | Northwestern 57%right winner | 18.2 | 0.8 |
Final: Penn State 13, Northwestern 34. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Penn State vs Northwestern: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Penn State | Northwestern |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 36.8#36 | 32.7#59 |
| Points allowed per game | 11.5#8 | 18.0#36 |
| Yards per play | 6.62#48 | 6.73#42 |
| Yards per play allowed | 4.60#20 | 5.88#90 |
| Rushing yards per game | 178.3#60 | 158.7#92 |
| Net passing yards per game | 260.5#43 | 245.3#53 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 117.3#31 | 213.7#129 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 147.0#11 | 213.7#79 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.25#16 | 0.67#50 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.25#36 | 1.00#56 |
| Sacks per game | 1.50#95 | 1.67#90 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.25#46 | 2.33#104 |
| Stat | Penn State | Northwestern |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.06#92 | +0.23#16 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.14#5 | +0.09#92 |
| Success rate | 40.5%#103 | 47.5%#30 |
| Success rate allowed | 33.6%#9 | 44.2%#108 |
| Explosive play rate | 14.3%#42 | 16.7%#12 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 10.0%#32 | 13.9%#109 |
| Havoc rate | 16.5%#26 | 13.9%#79 |
| Havoc allowed | 13.2%#80 | 11.7%#39 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.12#74 | 5.06#15 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.66#60 | 2.65#3 |
| Average starting field position | own 35#14 | own 28#98 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 24#7 | own 28#64 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 66.3#64 | 60.0#112 |
| Stat | Penn State | Northwestern |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.08#126 | +0.09#74 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.20#43 | +0.38#12 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.01#65 | +0.15#120 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.26#5 | +0.03#69 |
| Rushing success rate | 38.0%#113 | 42.2%#93 |
| Passing success rate | 44.3%#61 | 53.2%#15 |
| Run stuff rate | 15.6%#60 | 19.4%#102 |
| Passing-down success rate | 30.0%#81 | 37.5%#27 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 23.9%#23 | 24.1%#24 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 40.4%#80 | 41.7%#71 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 25.0%#5 | 45.7%#118 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 53.3%#108 | 76.9%#17 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 53.7%#50 | 30.8%#4 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Penn State schedule · Northwestern schedule · all Week 5 projections
Share this prediction
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.