Matchup analysis
Our model projects Iowa 26, Northwestern 20 at Ryan Field in Week 10. That is a lean: Iowa wins about 64% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 5.4 points and 46 combined points. Tags: upset alert, leans low scoring.
Iowa is 5-2 against the 39th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 28 and allowing 14.3 points per game (+13.7 per game). Northwestern (No. 20) is 6-1 against the 44th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 34.7 and allowing 16.6 points per game (+18.1 per game).
Iowa's strong offense (33rd of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 31.2 points against an average defense) meets Northwestern's strong defense (29th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Iowa puts up. Expect Northwestern to find it hard going: Iowa's elite defense (11th) outranks Northwestern's middle-of-the-pack offense (45th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 29.6 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Iowa by 28 and Northwestern by 17 about 80% of the time.
Northwestern gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Iowa is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
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Iowa vs Northwestern: stat comparison
| Stat | Iowa | Northwestern |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 28.0#75 | 34.7#35 |
| Points allowed per game | 14.3#8 | 16.6#22 |
| Yards per play | 6.18#55 | 6.92#16 |
| Yards per play allowed | 4.56#7 | 5.46#59 |
| Rushing yards per game | 184.1#52 | 216.0#21 |
| Net passing yards per game | 197.9#97 | 215.3#82 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 101.9#5 | 169.6#92 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 187.0#41 | 205.3#67 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.00#83 | 0.43#18 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.71#94 | 1.43#12 |
| Sacks per game | 3.14#9 | 1.86#81 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 0.86#11 | 2.14#90 |
| Stat | Iowa | Northwestern |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.07#75 | +0.23#11 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.04#30 | +0.01#50 |
| Success rate | 44.8%#50 | 50.5%#10 |
| Success rate allowed | 35.6%#18 | 41.8%#76 |
| Explosive play rate | 12.2%#80 | 18.3%#2 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 10.0%#22 | 10.5%#35 |
| Havoc rate | 16.1%#21 | 13.3%#87 |
| Havoc allowed | 10.8%#22 | 14.1%#94 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.17#60 | 4.79#22 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.62#50 | 2.71#2 |
| Average starting field position | own 32#27 | own 29#84 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 25#4 | own 27#36 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 61.9#108 | 62.3#106 |
| Stat | Iowa | Northwestern |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.08#72 | +0.16#24 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.07#78 | +0.31#13 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.21#2 | +0.13#120 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.12#95 | -0.09#26 |
| Rushing success rate | 43.6%#76 | 47.8%#32 |
| Passing success rate | 45.7%#41 | 53.9%#6 |
| Run stuff rate | 16.0%#50 | 20.1%#115 |
| Passing-down success rate | 26.4%#117 | 40.0%#10 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 23.2%#7 | 27.3%#39 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 37.2%#97 | 47.6%#25 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 33.0%#22 | 38.5%#68 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 59.7%#83 | 74.2%#16 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 47.3%#25 | 42.9%#11 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Iowa schedule · Northwestern schedule · all Week 10 projections
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