2026 schedule
Iowa Hawkeyes
2026 season so far
Iowa is 5-2 against the 39th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 28 and allowing 14.3 points per game (+13.7 per game).
In our opponent-adjusted ratings Iowa ranks 13th of 139 FBS teams overall — 33rd on offense and 11th on defense. The defense is the stronger unit.
Next up: vs Wisconsin in Week 9. We project Iowa 22, Wisconsin 14 — Iowa wins 72% of the time.
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Regular season
12 gamesMarket lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
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- vs
Northern Illinois Huskies
0-1 · SOS #59
Win 40-0
Week 1
Our number· pregame
Iowa by 19.7
Total 45.5
DraftKings
IOWA -31.5
Total 44.5
Final Iowa by 40. Iowa beat the spread. 40 points — under the 44.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
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Market lines: Iowa -31.75 (open Iowa -29.5) · O/U 44.5 (open 43.5) · ML +3750 / -55000 · Iowa 97% no-vig · model vs market -12.0 pts, -7 pct pts (Iowa view)
BTN Kinnick Stadium - vs
Iowa State Cyclones
1-1 · SOS #29
Win 16-13
Week 2
Our number· pregame
Iowa by 10.1
Total 45.5
DraftKings
IOWA -14
Total 42.5
Final Iowa by 3. Iowa State beat the spread. 29 points — under the 42.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
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Market lines: Iowa -14 (open Iowa -12.75) · O/U 42.5 (open 41.25) · ML +452.5 / -637.5 · Iowa 83% no-vig · model vs market -3.9 pts, -8 pct pts (Iowa view)
NBC Kinnick Stadium - vs
Northern Iowa Panthers
1-2 · SOS #4
Win 55-0
Week 3
Our number· pregame
Iowa by 41.1
Total 48.9
DraftKings
IOWA -37.5
Total 48.5
Final Iowa by 55. Iowa beat the spread. 55 points — over the 48.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
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Market lines: Iowa -37.5 (open Iowa -40.5) · O/U 48.75 (open 49.25) · model vs market +3.6 pts (Iowa view)
FS1 Kinnick Stadium - at
#18 Michigan Wolverines
3-1 · SOS #15
Win 20-19
Week 4
Our number· pregame
Iowa by 1.5
Total 46.3
DraftKings
MICH -4.5
Total 39.5
Final Iowa by 1. Iowa beat the spread. 39 points — under the 39.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
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Market lines: Michigan -4.75 (open Michigan -4.25) · O/U 39.75 (open 38.5) · ML +170 / -201.5 · Michigan 64% no-vig · model vs market -6.2 pts, -18 pct pts (Michigan view)
CBS Michigan Stadium - vs
#5 Ohio State Buckeyes
4-1 · SOS #19
Loss 14-31
Week 5
Our number· pregame
Ohio State by 11.9
Total 49.3
DraftKings
OSU -14.5
Total 46.5
Final Ohio State by 17. Ohio State beat the spread. 45 points — under the 46.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
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Market lines: Ohio State -14.25 (open Ohio State -14) · O/U 46 (open 45.25) · ML -637.5 / +450 · Iowa 18% no-vig · model vs market +2.3 pts, +4 pct pts (Iowa view)
CBS Kinnick Stadium - at
Washington Huskies
3-3 · SOS #65
Win 41-24
Week 6
Our number· pregame
Iowa by 2
Total 44.8
DraftKings
WASH -3
Total 41.5
Final Iowa by 17. Iowa beat the spread. 65 points — over the 41.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
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Market lines: Washington -3 (open Washington -2) · O/U 41 (open 42) · ML +120 / -142.5 · Washington 56% no-vig · model vs market -5.0 pts, -12 pct pts (Washington view)
Fox Husky Stadium - at
Minnesota Golden Gophers
5-2 · SOS #75
Loss 10-13
Week 8
Our number· pregame
Iowa by 12.8
Total 46.6
DraftKings
IOWA -7.5
Total 40.5
Final Minnesota by 3. Minnesota beat the spread. 23 points — under the 40.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
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Market lines: Iowa -7.5 · O/U 40.5 · ML -300 / +235 · Minnesota 31% no-vig · model vs market -5.3 pts, -11 pct pts (Minnesota view)
FS1 Huntington Bank Stadium - vs
#25 Wisconsin Badgers
5-2 · SOS #22
Sat, Oct 31, 4:00 PM
Week 9
Proj 22-14 · 72%
Our number
Iowa by 8
Total 36
DraftKings
IOWA -3.5
Total 36.5
We're 4.5 points higher on Iowa than the book. Shown for comparison only.
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Market lines: Iowa -3.5 · O/U 36.5 · ML +140 / -170 · Iowa 60% no-vig · model vs market +4.5 pts, +11 pct pts (Iowa view)
Fox Kinnick Stadium - at
#20 Northwestern Wildcats
6-1 · SOS #44
Sat, Nov 7 · TBD
Week 10
Proj 26-20 · 64%
Our number
Iowa by 6
Total 46
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Ryan Field - vs
Purdue Boilermakers
3-4 · SOS #11
Sat, Nov 14 · TBD
Week 11
Proj 37-16 · 91%
Our number
Iowa by 21
Total 53
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Kinnick Stadium - at
Illinois Fighting Illini
4-3 · SOS #28
Sat, Nov 21 · TBD
Week 12
Proj 28-21 · 67%
Our number
Iowa by 7
Total 49
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Gies Memorial Stadium - vs
Nebraska Cornhuskers
5-2 · SOS #31
Fri, Nov 27, 5:00 PM
Week 13
Proj 24-22 · 57%
Our number
Iowa by 2
Total 46
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
CBS Kinnick Stadium
Times shown in your local time
Iowa Hawkeyes stats: basic, advanced and situational
Power rating
+14.6
13th in FBS
Adj. offense
31.2
pts vs avg defense
Adj. defense
16.6
pts allowed vs avg offense
Basic stats
Box-score numbers per game.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Points per gameEvery point scored, every game. | 28.0 | 75 / 138 |
| Points allowed per gameEvery point conceded, every game. | 14.3 | 8 / 138 |
| Yards per playScrimmage yards divided by scrimmage plays (sacks count as pass plays). | 6.18 | 55 / 138 |
| Yards per play allowedThe same measure for opponents. | 4.56 | 7 / 138 |
| Rushing yards per gameDesigned runs and scrambles. | 184.1 | 52 / 138 |
| Net passing yards per gamePassing yards minus sack yardage. | 197.9 | 97 / 138 |
| Rushing yards allowed per gameOpponents' rushing yards. | 101.9 | 5 / 138 |
| Net passing yards allowed per gameOpponents' net passing yards. | 187.0 | 41 / 138 |
| Turnovers per gameInterceptions thrown and fumbles lost. | 1.00 | 83 / 138 |
| Takeaways per gameInterceptions and fumble recoveries. | 0.71 | 94 / 138 |
| Sacks per gameSacks by this defense. | 3.14 | 9 / 138 |
| Sacks allowed per gameSacks taken by this offense. | 0.86 | 11 / 138 |
Advanced stats
Efficiency from play-by-play, garbage time removed: expected points added (EPA), success rate, explosiveness, havoc, finishing drives, field position and pace.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per playExpected points added per snap, garbage time removed. Zero is average; +0.10 is very good. | +0.07 | 75 / 138 |
| EPA per play allowedExpected points the defense gives up per snap. Lower is better. | -0.04 | 30 / 138 |
| Success rateShare of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the distance on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th. | 44.8% | 50 / 138 |
| Success rate allowedOpponents' success rate. | 35.6% | 18 / 138 |
| Explosive play rateRuns of 12+ yards and passes of 16+ yards, as a share of plays. | 12.2% | 80 / 138 |
| Explosive plays allowedThe same rate for opponents. | 10.0% | 22 / 138 |
| Havoc rateShare of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass break-up. | 16.1% | 21 / 138 |
| Havoc allowedHow often this offense suffers a havoc play. | 10.8% | 22 / 138 |
| Points per scoring opportunityFinishing drives: points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40. | 4.17 | 60 / 138 |
| Points per opportunity allowedHow well the defense holds once opponents cross its 40. | 3.62 | 50 / 138 |
| Average starting field positionWhere this offense's drives begin, on average. | own 32 | 27 / 138 |
| Opponents' starting field positionWhere opponents' drives begin. | own 25 | 4 / 138 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace)Scrimmage snaps per game; a tempo measure. | 61.9 | 108 / 138 |
Situational stats
Run vs pass splits, passing downs, third downs and the red zone.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per playExpected points added on runs. | +0.08 | 72 / 138 |
| Passing EPA per playExpected points added on dropbacks, sacks included. | +0.07 | 78 / 138 |
| Rushing EPA allowedRun defense, per play. | -0.21 | 2 / 138 |
| Passing EPA allowedPass defense, per dropback. | +0.12 | 95 / 138 |
| Rushing success rateShare of runs that stay on schedule. | 43.6% | 76 / 138 |
| Passing success rateShare of dropbacks that stay on schedule. | 45.7% | 41 / 138 |
| Run stuff rateRuns stopped at or behind the line. | 16.0% | 50 / 138 |
| Passing-down success rateSuccess on 2nd-and-8+ and 3rd/4th-and-5+. | 26.4% | 117 / 138 |
| Passing-down success allowedHow often opponents escape long-yardage downs. | 23.2% | 7 / 138 |
| Third-down conversion rateThird downs converted by the play itself. | 37.2% | 97 / 138 |
| Third-down rate allowedOpponents' third-down conversions. | 33.0% | 22 / 138 |
| Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown. | 59.7% | 83 / 138 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowedOpponents' red-zone touchdown rate. | 47.3% | 25 / 138 |
Power rating = projected margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field, from our opponent-adjusted efficiency model. How it works and how accurate it has been.
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