Matchup analysis
Our model projects Iowa 28, Illinois 21 at Gies Memorial Stadium in Week 12. That is a lean: Iowa wins about 67% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 6.9 points and 49.8 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
Iowa is 5-2 against the 39th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 28 and allowing 14.3 points per game (+13.7 per game). Illinois is 4-3 against the 26th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 30.3 and allowing 25.3 points per game (+5 per game).
The most lopsided unit battle: Iowa's strong offense (31st of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 31.6 points against an average defense) against Illinois's middle-of-the-pack defense (51st). Iowa's elite defense (11th) should limit Illinois's strong offense (40th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 30 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Iowa by 29 and Illinois by 16 about 80% of the time.
Illinois gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Iowa is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Iowa vs Illinois: stat comparison
| Stat | Iowa | Illinois |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 28.0#75 | 30.3#58 |
| Points allowed per game | 14.3#8 | 25.3#81 |
| Yards per play | 6.18#55 | 6.67#25 |
| Yards per play allowed | 4.56#7 | 6.21#110 |
| Rushing yards per game | 184.1#52 | 170.1#62 |
| Net passing yards per game | 197.9#97 | 239.7#52 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 101.9#5 | 141.7#53 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 187.0#41 | 261.1#128 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.00#83 | 0.71#46 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.71#94 | 0.57#111 |
| Sacks per game | 3.14#9 | 1.00#131 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 0.86#11 | 1.29#33 |
| Stat | Iowa | Illinois |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.07#75 | +0.13#48 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.04#30 | +0.18#125 |
| Success rate | 44.8%#50 | 47.6%#25 |
| Success rate allowed | 35.6%#18 | 46.2%#127 |
| Explosive play rate | 12.2%#80 | 13.6%#49 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 10.0%#22 | 11.1%#56 |
| Havoc rate | 16.1%#21 | 10.6%#133 |
| Havoc allowed | 10.8%#22 | 10.9%#25 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.17#60 | 4.18#56 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.62#50 | 4.62#122 |
| Average starting field position | own 32#27 | own 29#95 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 25#4 | own 29#83 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 61.9#108 | 61.4#114 |
| Stat | Iowa | Illinois |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.08#72 | +0.12#47 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.07#78 | +0.13#53 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.21#2 | +0.08#94 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.12#95 | +0.28#129 |
| Rushing success rate | 43.6%#76 | 44.7%#66 |
| Passing success rate | 45.7%#41 | 50.2%#16 |
| Run stuff rate | 16.0%#50 | 12.0%#7 |
| Passing-down success rate | 26.4%#117 | 36.7%#22 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 23.2%#7 | 38.3%#129 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 37.2%#97 | 48.2%#22 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 33.0%#22 | 41.1%#96 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 59.7%#83 | 63.2%#63 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 47.3%#25 | 68.0%#112 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Iowa schedule · Illinois schedule · all Week 12 projections
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