Matchup analysis
Our model projects Iowa 37, Purdue 16 at Kinnick Stadium in Week 11. That is a heavy edge: Iowa wins about 91% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 20.5 points and 53.1 combined points. Tags: favorite holds.
Purdue is 3-4 against the 12th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 31.3 and allowing 32.3 points per game (-1 per game). Iowa is 5-2 against the 59th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 28 and allowing 14.3 points per game (+13.7 per game).
Iowa's elite defense (11th) should limit Purdue's middle-of-the-pack offense (61st of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 27.5 points against an average defense). The most lopsided unit battle: Iowa's strong offense (33rd of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 31.2 points against an average defense) against Purdue's below-average defense (101st).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Purdue by 2 and Iowa by 43 about 80% of the time.
Iowa gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Iowa by about 18.4.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Purdue vs Iowa: stat comparison
| Stat | Purdue | Iowa |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 31.3#53 | 28.0#75 |
| Points allowed per game | 32.3#123 | 14.3#8 |
| Yards per play | 6.08#60 | 6.18#55 |
| Yards per play allowed | 7.04#134 | 4.56#7 |
| Rushing yards per game | 145.0#102 | 184.1#52 |
| Net passing yards per game | 270.1#22 | 197.9#97 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 170.0#94 | 101.9#5 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 258.6#126 | 187.0#41 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.71#47 | 1.00#83 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.00#54 | 0.71#94 |
| Sacks per game | 1.14#121 | 3.14#9 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.29#101 | 0.86#11 |
| Stat | Purdue | Iowa |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.12#51 | +0.07#75 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.20#127 | -0.04#30 |
| Success rate | 45.5%#44 | 44.8%#50 |
| Success rate allowed | 47.4%#132 | 35.6%#18 |
| Explosive play rate | 13.7%#42 | 12.2%#80 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 19.1%#138 | 10.0%#22 |
| Havoc rate | 12.8%#100 | 16.1%#21 |
| Havoc allowed | 14.0%#91 | 10.8%#22 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.27#51 | 4.17#60 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.67#125 | 3.62#50 |
| Average starting field position | own 31#41 | own 32#27 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 28#59 | own 25#4 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 68.3#43 | 61.9#108 |
| Stat | Purdue | Iowa |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.02#101 | +0.08#72 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.21#32 | +0.07#78 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.14#124 | -0.21#2 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.26#125 | +0.12#95 |
| Rushing success rate | 42.4%#86 | 43.6%#76 |
| Passing success rate | 48.2%#25 | 45.7%#41 |
| Run stuff rate | 16.8%#67 | 16.0%#50 |
| Passing-down success rate | 36.4%#26 | 26.4%#117 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 39.2%#130 | 23.2%#7 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 44.4%#40 | 37.2%#97 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 50.0%#132 | 33.0%#22 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 60.0%#81 | 59.7%#83 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 71.4%#122 | 47.3%#25 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Purdue schedule · Iowa schedule · all Week 11 projections
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