Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Iowa 45, Northern Iowa 3.9 at Kinnick Stadium in Week 3. That is a heavy edge: Iowa wins about 100% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 41.1 points and 48.9 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, blowout brewing.
Northern Iowa is 1-1, scoring 40 and allowing 24 points per game (+16 per game). Iowa (No. 18) is 2-0, scoring 28 and allowing 6.5 points per game (+21.5 per game).
Northern Iowa plays in the FCS, so this is a cross-division game. Our ratings put FCS teams on the FBS scale through a measured gap from every FBS-vs-FCS result, which is why Iowa's projected edge is large even if the records look similar. Cross-division projections are a little less precise than FBS-vs-FBS ones.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Iowa by 19 and Iowa by 64 about 80% of the time.
Iowa gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Iowa by about 39. The game is on FS1.
Result: Northern Iowa 0, Iowa 55. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 13.9 points and the total by 6.1.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Northern Iowa / Iowa) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Iowa -40.5 → Iowa -37.5 | 49.25 → 48.75 | — / — |
| DraftKings | Iowa -40.5 → Iowa -37.5 | 49.5 → 48.5 | — / — |
| Bovada | Iowa -40.5 → Iowa -37.5 | 49 | — / — |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Iowa win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Iowa -41 | 48.9 | 100% |
| Market consensus | Iowa -37.5 | 48.8 | 99% |
| Blended projection | Iowa -38.5 | 49.7 | 100% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Iowa win probability
- model 100% · market (no-vig) —
- Margin
- model Iowa -41.1 · market Iowa -37.5 · difference +3.6 pts (Iowa view)
- Total
- model 48.9 · market 48.75 · difference +0.1
Model margin is 3.6 pts more toward Iowa than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Northern Iowa 3.9, Iowa 45.0 | Iowa 100%right winner | 13.9 | 6.1 |
| New formula | Northern Iowa 8.4, Iowa 41.0 | Iowa 98%right winner | 22.4 | 5.6 |
Final: Northern Iowa 0, Iowa 55. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Northern Iowa vs Iowa: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Northern Iowa | Iowa |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 40.0 | 28.0#85 |
| Points allowed per game | 24.0 | 6.5#5 |
| Yards per play | 6.27 | 5.77#94 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.01 | 3.76#12 |
| Rushing yards per game | 156.5 | 191.0#60 |
| Net passing yards per game | 251.0 | 204.5#88 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 111.5 | 90.5#21 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 336.5 | 110.5#9 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.00 | 0.50#47 |
| Takeaways per game | 2.00 | 0.50#99 |
| Sacks per game | 3.00 | 3.00#22 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 3.50 | 0.00#4 |
| Stat | Northern Iowa | Iowa |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.10 | +0.09#68 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.09 | -0.27#2 |
| Success rate | 43.8% | 43.1%#73 |
| Success rate allowed | 42.9% | 23.0%#2 |
| Explosive play rate | 14.1% | 8.3%#126 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 11.9% | 8.1%#13 |
| Havoc rate | 15.8% | 18.9%#16 |
| Havoc allowed | 12.2% | 7.3%#6 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 0.00 | 3.00#126 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 0.00 | 3.25#33 |
| Average starting field position | opp 0 | own 36#22 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 0 | own 23#13 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 65.0 | 68.5#45 |
| Stat | Northern Iowa | Iowa |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.06 | +0.02#96 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.15 | +0.16#51 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.07 | -0.31#2 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.12 | -0.20#16 |
| Rushing success rate | 47.5% | 36.0%#117 |
| Passing success rate | 52.6% | 49.2%#43 |
| Run stuff rate | 19.6% | 19.4%#98 |
| Passing-down success rate | 35.6% | 25.8%#110 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 32.4% | 17.2%#6 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 50.0% | 37.9%#90 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 53.6% | 25.9%#24 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 0.0% | 42.9%#128 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 0.0% | 50.0%#40 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Northern Iowa schedule · Iowa schedule · all Week 3 projections
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