Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Ohio State 30.6, Iowa 18.7 at Kinnick Stadium in Week 5. That is a solid edge: Ohio State wins about 78% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 11.9 points and 49.2 combined points.
Ohio State (No. 5) is 3-1, scoring 45 and allowing 12.3 points per game (+32.7 per game). Iowa (No. 14) is 4-0, scoring 32.8 and allowing 8 points per game (+24.8 per game).
Ohio State's elite offense (6th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 40.3 points against an average defense) meets Iowa's elite defense (8th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Ohio State puts up. Ohio State's elite defense (3rd) should limit Iowa's strong offense (35th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 31.1 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Ohio State by 34 and Iowa by 11 about 80% of the time.
Iowa gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Ohio State is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on CBS.
Result: Ohio State 31, Iowa 14. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 5.1 points and the total by 4.2.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Ohio State / Iowa) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Ohio State -14 → Ohio State -14.25 | 45.25 → 46 | -637.5 / +450 |
| DraftKings | Ohio State -14 → Ohio State -14.5 | 44.5 → 46.5 | -700 / +500 |
| Bovada | Ohio State -14 | 46 → 45.5 | -575 / +400 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Iowa win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Ohio State -12 | 49.2 | 22% |
| Market consensus | Ohio State -14 | 46.0 | 18% |
| Blended projection | Ohio State -14 | 47.3 | 17% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Iowa win probability
- model 22% · market (no-vig) 18% · difference +4 pts
- Margin
- model Ohio State -11.9 · market Ohio State -14.25 · difference +2.3 pts (Iowa view)
- Total
- model 49.2 · market 46 · difference +3.2
Model margin is 2.3 pts more toward Iowa than the market.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Ohio State 30.6, Iowa 18.7 | Ohio State 78%right winner | 5.1 | 4.2 |
| New formula | Ohio State 29.5, Iowa 19.0 | Ohio State 75%right winner | 6.5 | 3.6 |
Final: Ohio State 31, Iowa 14. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Ohio State vs Iowa: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Ohio State | Iowa |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 45.0#6 | 32.8#58 |
| Points allowed per game | 12.3#11 | 8.0#1 |
| Yards per play | 7.94#6 | 6.60#50 |
| Yards per play allowed | 4.34#13 | 4.26#10 |
| Rushing yards per game | 165.0#81 | 220.0#28 |
| Net passing yards per game | 369.0#2 | 207.5#92 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 129.5#49 | 97.5#13 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 154.0#21 | 148.5#13 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.00#83 | 0.25#14 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.00#57 | 1.00#55 |
| Sacks per game | 1.75#79 | 2.25#51 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.25#45 | 0.75#17 |
| Stat | Ohio State | Iowa |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.27#10 | +0.18#33 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.04#71 | -0.09#18 |
| Success rate | 52.7%#6 | 45.2%#52 |
| Success rate allowed | 37.9%#40 | 33.2%#8 |
| Explosive play rate | 14.6%#35 | 13.2%#67 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 10.0%#31 | 10.5%#48 |
| Havoc rate | 15.9%#34 | 15.8%#37 |
| Havoc allowed | 11.3%#33 | 8.1%#3 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 5.09#13 | 3.96#86 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.34#34 | 3.02#17 |
| Average starting field position | own 32#43 | own 32#36 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 26#25 | own 23#6 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 67.3#56 | 64.8#78 |
| Stat | Ohio State | Iowa |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.11#58 | +0.10#62 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.40#9 | +0.24#37 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.10#103 | -0.19#4 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.02#51 | +0.03#68 |
| Rushing success rate | 49.0%#32 | 40.4%#102 |
| Passing success rate | 59.7%#2 | 50.0%#26 |
| Run stuff rate | 17.0%#79 | 13.7%#31 |
| Passing-down success rate | 38.8%#20 | 27.6%#101 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 32.9%#106 | 25.5%#37 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 46.7%#42 | 39.2%#91 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 36.7%#66 | 29.1%#18 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 69.8%#46 | 67.3%#58 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 44.9%#24 | 36.1%#8 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Ohio State schedule · Iowa schedule · all Week 5 projections
Share this prediction
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.