Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Iowa 23.4, Washington 21.4 at Husky Stadium in Week 6. That is a genuine toss-up: Iowa wins about 55% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 2 points and 44.8 combined points. Tags: coin flip, leans low scoring.
Iowa (No. 20) is 4-1, scoring 29 and allowing 12.6 points per game (+16.4 per game). Washington is 3-2, scoring 26.6 and allowing 18.4 points per game (+8.2 per game).
Washington's strong defense (20th) should limit Iowa's strong offense (38th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 30.2 points against an average defense). Expect Washington to find it hard going: Iowa's elite defense (9th) outranks Washington's middle-of-the-pack offense (49th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 29 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Iowa by 25 and Washington by 21 about 80% of the time.
Washington gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Iowa is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on Fox.
Result: Iowa 41, Washington 24. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 15 points and the total by 20.2.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Iowa / Washington) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Washington -2 → Washington -3 | 42 → 41 | +120 / -142.5 |
| Bovada | Washington -2.5 → Washington -3 | 42.5 → 40.5 | +110 / -130 |
| DraftKings | Washington -1.5 → Washington -3 | 41.5 | +130 / -155 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Washington win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Iowa -2 | 44.8 | 45% |
| Market consensus | Washington -3 | 41.0 | 56% |
| Blended projection | Washington -2 | 42.7 | 56% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Washington win probability
- model 45% · market (no-vig) 56% · difference -12 pts
- Margin
- model Iowa -2 · market Washington -3 · difference -5.0 pts (Washington view)
- Total
- model 44.8 · market 41 · difference +3.8
Model margin is 5.0 pts more toward Iowa than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Iowa 23.4, Washington 21.4 | Iowa 55%right winner | 15.0 | 20.2 |
| New formula | Iowa 23.3, Washington 20.7 | Iowa 57%right winner | 14.4 | 21.0 |
Final: Iowa 41, Washington 24. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Iowa vs Washington: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Iowa | Washington |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 29.0#74 | 26.6#87 |
| Points allowed per game | 12.6#8 | 18.4#37 |
| Yards per play | 6.26#63 | 6.17#67 |
| Yards per play allowed | 4.81#21 | 5.00#28 |
| Rushing yards per game | 188.0#52 | 123.2#124 |
| Net passing yards per game | 201.2#95 | 255.4#46 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 115.8#25 | 123.4#33 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 177.8#37 | 195.4#59 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.60#46 | 0.60#49 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.80#76 | 1.60#15 |
| Sacks per game | 2.60#35 | 2.00#64 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.00#24 | 2.80#121 |
| Stat | Iowa | Washington |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.11#63 | +0.04#97 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.00#54 | -0.02#46 |
| Success rate | 43.5%#66 | 42.5%#78 |
| Success rate allowed | 37.6%#36 | 38.5%#44 |
| Explosive play rate | 12.5%#76 | 13.2%#64 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 11.2%#54 | 10.7%#38 |
| Havoc rate | 15.3%#40 | 16.2%#26 |
| Havoc allowed | 9.3%#7 | 12.4%#53 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.11#68 | 3.86#88 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.33#28 | 3.78#69 |
| Average starting field position | own 31#47 | own 30#70 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 25#10 | own 28#58 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 62.2#101 | 61.4#108 |
| Stat | Iowa | Washington |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.08#77 | +0.03#93 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.13#57 | +0.04#87 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.17#2 | -0.09#21 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.21#111 | +0.07#80 |
| Rushing success rate | 39.0%#111 | 42.9%#86 |
| Passing success rate | 46.9%#36 | 44.6%#60 |
| Run stuff rate | 14.3%#35 | 17.6%#82 |
| Passing-down success rate | 26.8%#108 | 27.8%#101 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 27.7%#51 | 29.1%#70 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 40.3%#82 | 30.5%#129 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 34.3%#39 | 31.9%#26 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 64.3%#71 | 55.5%#102 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 41.7%#11 | 55.7%#60 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Iowa schedule · Washington schedule · all Week 6 projections
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