Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Iowa 23.9, Michigan 22.4 at Michigan Stadium in Week 4. That is a genuine toss-up: Iowa wins about 54% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 1.5 points and 46.2 combined points. Tags: coin flip, leans low scoring.
Iowa (No. 17) is 3-0, scoring 37 and allowing 4.3 points per game (+32.7 per game). Michigan (No. 18) is 3-0, scoring 27.3 and allowing 13 points per game (+14.3 per game).
Michigan's strong defense (15th) should limit Iowa's strong offense (32nd of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 31.1 points against an average defense). Expect Michigan to find it hard going: Iowa's elite defense (8th) outranks Michigan's strong offense (36th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 30.4 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Iowa by 24 and Michigan by 21 about 80% of the time.
Michigan gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Iowa is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on CBS.
Result: Iowa 20, Michigan 19. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 0.5 points and the total by 7.2.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Iowa / Michigan) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Michigan -4.25 → Michigan -4.75 | 38.5 → 39.75 | +170 / -201.5 |
| DraftKings | Michigan -4.5 | 39.5 | +180 / -218 |
| Bovada | Michigan -4 → Michigan -5 | 37.5 → 40 | +160 / -185 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Michigan win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Iowa -1.5 | 46.2 | 46% |
| Market consensus | Michigan -5 | 39.8 | 64% |
| Blended projection | Michigan -3.5 | 41.7 | 60% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Michigan win probability
- model 46% · market (no-vig) 64% · difference -18 pts
- Margin
- model Iowa -1.5 · market Michigan -4.75 · difference -6.2 pts (Michigan view)
- Total
- model 46.2 · market 39.75 · difference +6.5
Model margin is 6.2 pts more toward Iowa than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Iowa 23.9, Michigan 22.4 | Iowa 54%right winner | 0.5 | 7.2 |
| New formula | Iowa 22.2, Michigan 22.2 | Michigan 50%wrong winner | 1.0 | 5.3 |
Final: Iowa 20, Michigan 19. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Iowa vs Michigan: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Iowa | Michigan |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 37.0#47 | 27.3#91 |
| Points allowed per game | 4.3#1 | 13.0#21 |
| Yards per play | 7.12#27 | 5.56#105 |
| Yards per play allowed | 3.40#1 | 4.03#9 |
| Rushing yards per game | 271.7#10 | 146.3#101 |
| Net passing yards per game | 205.3#88 | 172.7#111 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 78.3#7 | 118.3#41 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 106.7#5 | 116.7#8 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.33#27 | 0.67#59 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.00#58 | 1.00#59 |
| Sacks per game | 2.67#27 | 3.00#15 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 0.33#4 | 1.33#64 |
| Stat | Iowa | Michigan |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.26#11 | +0.14#50 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.29#1 | -0.18#4 |
| Success rate | 52.4%#8 | 42.9%#76 |
| Success rate allowed | 23.0%#1 | 32.5%#10 |
| Explosive play rate | 15.2%#25 | 10.6%#113 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 8.0%#8 | 8.8%#13 |
| Havoc rate | 21.0%#2 | 18.1%#14 |
| Havoc allowed | 6.2%#1 | 11.8%#45 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.20#77 | 4.31#63 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.25#28 | 2.91#11 |
| Average starting field position | own 34#32 | own 30#81 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 23#5 | own 29#82 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 67.0#54 | 57.3#124 |
| Stat | Iowa | Michigan |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.25#8 | +0.06#80 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.26#31 | +0.25#38 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.33#1 | -0.12#21 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.23#7 | -0.27#3 |
| Rushing success rate | 49.3%#34 | 38.5%#109 |
| Passing success rate | 55.1%#15 | 48.6%#36 |
| Run stuff rate | 14.0%#31 | 12.0%#13 |
| Passing-down success rate | 26.5%#111 | 38.6%#22 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 17.5%#5 | 17.5%#6 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 37.8%#103 | 45.7%#54 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 26.2%#12 | 33.3%#48 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 63.6%#76 | 85.7%#6 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 50.0%#41 | 20.0%#4 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Iowa schedule · Michigan schedule · all Week 4 projections
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