Matchup analysis
Our model projects Iowa 24, Nebraska 22 at Kinnick Stadium in Week 13. That is a genuine toss-up: Iowa wins about 57% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 2.8 points and 46.2 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
Nebraska is 5-2 against the 44th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 35.6 and allowing 15.4 points per game (+20.2 per game). Iowa is 5-2 against the 59th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 28 and allowing 14.3 points per game (+13.7 per game).
Nebraska's strong offense (22nd of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 32.6 points against an average defense) meets Iowa's elite defense (11th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Nebraska puts up. Nebraska's strong defense (17th) should limit Iowa's strong offense (33rd of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 31.2 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Nebraska by 20 and Iowa by 25 about 80% of the time.
Iowa gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Iowa by about 0.7. The game is on CBS.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Nebraska vs Iowa: stat comparison
| Stat | Nebraska | Iowa |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 35.6#29 | 28.0#75 |
| Points allowed per game | 15.4#14 | 14.3#8 |
| Yards per play | 6.08#59 | 6.18#55 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.08#32 | 4.56#7 |
| Rushing yards per game | 208.7#26 | 184.1#52 |
| Net passing yards per game | 223.6#69 | 197.9#97 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 118.6#22 | 101.9#5 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 181.3#29 | 187.0#41 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.57#32 | 1.00#83 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.29#24 | 0.71#94 |
| Sacks per game | 2.57#26 | 3.14#9 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.86#70 | 0.86#11 |
| Stat | Nebraska | Iowa |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.13#45 | +0.07#75 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.14#4 | -0.04#30 |
| Success rate | 44.2%#54 | 44.8%#50 |
| Success rate allowed | 33.4%#3 | 35.6%#18 |
| Explosive play rate | 13.4%#57 | 12.2%#80 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 9.8%#18 | 10.0%#22 |
| Havoc rate | 16.0%#22 | 16.1%#21 |
| Havoc allowed | 13.0%#59 | 10.8%#22 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.93#14 | 4.17#60 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.00#8 | 3.62#50 |
| Average starting field position | own 29#83 | own 32#27 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 28#53 | own 25#4 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 71.1#13 | 61.9#108 |
| Stat | Nebraska | Iowa |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.16#23 | +0.08#72 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.11#66 | +0.07#78 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.04#32 | -0.21#2 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.22#4 | +0.12#95 |
| Rushing success rate | 44.9%#62 | 43.6%#76 |
| Passing success rate | 43.4%#55 | 45.7%#41 |
| Run stuff rate | 17.1%#72 | 16.0%#50 |
| Passing-down success rate | 38.3%#14 | 26.4%#117 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 18.8%#2 | 23.2%#7 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 50.0%#17 | 37.2%#97 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 23.9%#1 | 33.0%#22 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 78.6%#5 | 59.7%#83 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 43.8%#14 | 47.3%#25 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Nebraska schedule · Iowa schedule · all Week 13 projections
Share this prediction
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.