Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Iowa 27.8, Iowa State 17.7 at Kinnick Stadium in Week 2. That is a solid edge: Iowa wins about 75% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 10.1 points and 45.5 combined points. Tags: leans low scoring.
Iowa State is 1-0, scoring 38 and allowing 10 points per game (+28 per game). Iowa (No. 21) is 1-0, scoring 40 and allowing 0 points per game (+40 per game).
Iowa's elite defense (11th) should limit Iowa State's middle-of-the-pack offense (69th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 26.1 points against an average defense). The most lopsided unit battle: Iowa's strong offense (27th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 32.2 points against an average defense) against Iowa State's middle-of-the-pack defense (59th).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Iowa State by 12 and Iowa by 33 about 80% of the time.
Iowa gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Iowa by about 8. The game is on NBC.
Result: Iowa State 13, Iowa 16. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 7.1 points and the total by 16.5.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Iowa State / Iowa) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Iowa -12.75 → Iowa -14 | 41.25 → 42.5 | +452.5 / -637.5 |
| DraftKings | Iowa -11.5 → Iowa -14 | 41.5 → 42.5 | +455 / -625 |
| Bovada | Iowa -14 | 41 → 42.5 | +450 / -650 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Iowa win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Iowa -10 | 45.5 | 75% |
| Market consensus | Iowa -14 | 42.5 | 83% |
| Blended projection | Iowa -13.5 | 44.1 | 82% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Iowa win probability
- model 75% · market (no-vig) 83% · difference -8 pts
- Margin
- model Iowa -10.1 · market Iowa -14 · difference -3.9 pts (Iowa view)
- Total
- model 45.5 · market 42.5 · difference +3.0
Model margin is 3.9 pts more toward Iowa State than the market.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Iowa State 17.7, Iowa 27.8 | Iowa 75%right winner | 7.1 | 16.5 |
| New formula | Iowa State 13.0, Iowa 34.5 | Iowa 90%right winner | 18.5 | 18.5 |
Final: Iowa State 13, Iowa 16. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Iowa State vs Iowa: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Iowa State | Iowa |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 27.4#70 | 29.3#54 |
| Points allowed per game | 20.2#27 | 16.1#8 |
| Yards per play | 5.87#68 | 5.41#108 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.64#53 | 5.02#14 |
| Rushing yards per game | 184.5#47 | 186.6#43 |
| Net passing yards per game | 214.8#83 | 140.2#128 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 137.3#28 | 124.5#14 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 216.8#66 | 174.0#15 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.00#66 | 0.69#12 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.25#41 | 0.92#80 |
| Sacks per game | 1.08#128 | 1.92#72 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.67#55 | 1.38#29 |
| Stat | Iowa State | Iowa |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.02#80 | +0.03#68 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.02#50 | -0.07#22 |
| Success rate | 44.9%#44 | 44.6%#46 |
| Success rate allowed | 39.4%#42 | 38.8%#32 |
| Explosive play rate | 12.9%#55 | 11.3%#102 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.4%#68 | 9.3%#10 |
| Havoc rate | 13.5%#44 | 12.1%#80 |
| Havoc allowed | 12.2%#77 | 8.7%#4 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.85#82 | 4.50#19 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.63#43 | 3.57#38 |
| Average starting field position | own 30#45 | own 34#5 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 27#20 | own 27#9 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 68.0#46 | 60.5#124 |
| Stat | Iowa State | Iowa |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.02#71 | +0.13#17 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.01#78 | -0.13#120 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.03#42 | +0.02#83 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.01#65 | -0.17#15 |
| Rushing success rate | 45.8%#43 | 48.5%#14 |
| Passing success rate | 43.8%#39 | 38.8%#98 |
| Run stuff rate | 17.6%#55 | 14.3%#14 |
| Passing-down success rate | 30.9%#65 | 26.3%#116 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 28.7%#56 | 24.6%#10 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 42.1%#55 | 44.7%#37 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 40.0%#60 | 35.4%#22 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 61.5%#66 | 72.0%#18 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 55.6%#37 | 51.4%#21 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Iowa State schedule · Iowa schedule · all Week 2 projections
Share this prediction
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.