Matchup analysis
Our model projects Iowa 22, Wisconsin 14 at Kinnick Stadium in Week 9. That is a solid edge: Iowa wins about 72% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 8.7 points and 35.8 combined points. Tags: leans low scoring.
Wisconsin (No. 25) is 5-2 against the 22nd-toughest schedule so far, scoring 27 and allowing 15.3 points per game (+11.7 per game). Iowa is 5-2 against the 39th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 28 and allowing 14.3 points per game (+13.7 per game).
Iowa's elite defense (11th) should limit Wisconsin's middle-of-the-pack offense (82nd of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 25 points against an average defense). Expect Iowa to find it hard going: Wisconsin's elite defense (13th) outranks Iowa's strong offense (33rd of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 31.2 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Wisconsin by 14 and Iowa by 31 about 80% of the time.
Iowa gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Iowa by about 6.6. The game is on Fox.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Wisconsin / Iowa) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Iowa -3.5 | 36.5 | +140 / -170 |
| DraftKings | Iowa -3.5 | 36.5 | +142 / -170 |
| FanDuel | Iowa -3.5 | 36.5 | +138 / -166 |
| theScore Bet | Iowa -3.5 | 36.5 | +135 / -155 |
| BetRivers | Iowa -3.5 | 37 | +140 / -177 |
| BetMGM | Iowa -3.5 | 36.5 | +140 / -165 |
| Hard Rock Bet | Iowa -3.5 | 36.5 | +140 / -175 |
| Pinnacle | Iowa -3.5 | 37 | +146 / -170 |
| Bovada | Iowa -3.5 | 37 | +145 / -170 |
This game's lines: The Odds API · read Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Iowa win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Iowa -8.5 | 35.8 | 72% |
| Market consensus | Iowa -3.5 | 36.5 | 60% |
| Blended projection | Iowa -4.5 | 38.3 | 62% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Iowa win probability
- model 72% · market (no-vig) 60% · difference +11 pts
- Margin
- model Iowa -8.7 · market Iowa -3.5 · difference +5.2 pts (Iowa view)
- Total
- model 35.8 · market 36.5 · difference -0.7
Prediction exchange (Kalshi) price implies Iowa 61%.
Model margin is 5.2 pts more toward Iowa than the market.
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Wisconsin vs Iowa: stat comparison
| Stat | Wisconsin | Iowa |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 27.0#79 | 28.0#75 |
| Points allowed per game | 15.3#13 | 14.3#8 |
| Yards per play | 6.00#68 | 6.18#55 |
| Yards per play allowed | 4.43#3 | 4.56#7 |
| Rushing yards per game | 155.0#92 | 184.1#52 |
| Net passing yards per game | 191.9#105 | 197.9#97 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 114.4#17 | 101.9#5 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 182.1#30 | 187.0#41 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.71#51 | 1.00#83 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.00#59 | 0.71#94 |
| Sacks per game | 1.71#99 | 3.14#9 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.14#27 | 0.86#11 |
| Stat | Wisconsin | Iowa |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.06#85 | +0.07#75 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.11#10 | -0.04#30 |
| Success rate | 39.3%#117 | 44.8%#50 |
| Success rate allowed | 38.4%#35 | 35.6%#18 |
| Explosive play rate | 12.3%#76 | 12.2%#80 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 6.9%#2 | 10.0%#22 |
| Havoc rate | 14.4%#65 | 16.1%#21 |
| Havoc allowed | 12.6%#52 | 10.8%#22 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.09#72 | 4.17#60 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.10#12 | 3.62#50 |
| Average starting field position | own 32#25 | own 32#27 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 25#5 | own 25#4 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 57.9#134 | 61.9#108 |
| Stat | Wisconsin | Iowa |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.10#55 | +0.08#72 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.01#103 | +0.07#78 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.12#7 | -0.21#2 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.10#22 | +0.12#95 |
| Rushing success rate | 39.6%#108 | 43.6%#76 |
| Passing success rate | 38.9%#101 | 45.7%#41 |
| Run stuff rate | 14.2%#23 | 16.0%#50 |
| Passing-down success rate | 26.1%#119 | 26.4%#117 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 24.6%#13 | 23.2%#7 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 46.1%#32 | 37.2%#97 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 41.8%#100 | 33.0%#22 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 57.1%#97 | 59.7%#83 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 40.0%#6 | 47.3%#25 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Wisconsin schedule · Iowa schedule · all Week 9 projections
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