Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Iowa 29.7, Minnesota 16.9 at Huntington Bank Stadium in Week 8. That is a solid edge: Iowa wins about 80% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 12.8 points and 46.5 combined points. Tags: leans low scoring.
Iowa (No. 15) is 5-1, scoring 31 and allowing 14.5 points per game (+16.5 per game). Minnesota is 4-2, scoring 28.8 and allowing 21.8 points per game (+7 per game).
Iowa's strong offense (33rd of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 31.2 points against an average defense) meets Minnesota's strong defense (37th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Iowa puts up. Iowa's elite defense (11th) should limit Minnesota's below-average offense (92nd of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 24.4 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Iowa by 35 and Minnesota by 10 about 80% of the time.
Minnesota gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Iowa is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on FS1.
Result: Iowa 10, Minnesota 13. Minnesota won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 15.8 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Iowa / Minnesota) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Iowa -7.5 | 40.5 | -300 / +235 |
| Opening line | Iowa -2.5 | 42.5 | -142 / +118 |
| DraftKings | Iowa -7.5 | 40.5 | -290 / +235 |
| FanDuel | Iowa -7.5 | 40.5 | -315 / +250 |
| BetRivers | Iowa -7.5 | 41 | -360 / +255 |
| BetMGM | Iowa -7.5 | 41.5 | -285 / +230 |
This game's lines: Action Network · read Oct 25, 6:45 AM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Minnesota win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Iowa -13 | 46.5 | 20% |
| Market consensus | Iowa -7.5 | 40.5 | 31% |
| Blended projection | Iowa -8.5 | 42.4 | 28% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Minnesota win probability
- model 20% · market (no-vig) 31% · difference -11 pts
- Margin
- model Iowa -12.8 · market Iowa -7.5 · difference -5.3 pts (Minnesota view)
- Total
- model 46.5 · market 40.5 · difference +6.0
Model margin is 5.3 pts more toward Iowa than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Iowa 29.7, Minnesota 16.9 | Iowa 80%wrong winner | 15.8 | 23.5 |
| New formula | Not recorded for this game | |||
Final: Iowa 10, Minnesota 13. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Iowa vs Minnesota: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Iowa | Minnesota |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 29.3#54 | 23.0#102 |
| Points allowed per game | 16.1#8 | 22.9#50 |
| Yards per play | 5.41#108 | 5.20#119 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.02#14 | 5.91#81 |
| Rushing yards per game | 186.6#43 | 113.1#131 |
| Net passing yards per game | 140.2#128 | 196.5#97 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 124.5#14 | 139.8#33 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 174.0#15 | 216.1#65 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.69#12 | 0.58#6 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.92#80 | 1.00#72 |
| Sacks per game | 1.92#72 | 2.83#9 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.38#29 | 1.67#53 |
| Stat | Iowa | Minnesota |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.03#68 | -0.00#91 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.07#22 | +0.00#65 |
| Success rate | 44.6%#46 | 39.8%#105 |
| Success rate allowed | 38.8%#32 | 44.8%#110 |
| Explosive play rate | 11.3%#102 | 9.3%#130 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 9.3%#10 | 13.2%#96 |
| Havoc rate | 12.1%#80 | 14.9%#12 |
| Havoc allowed | 8.7%#4 | 11.7%#58 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.50#19 | 3.97#71 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.57#38 | 4.05#92 |
| Average starting field position | own 34#5 | own 32#16 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 27#9 | own 28#22 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 60.5#124 | 59.6#130 |
| Stat | Iowa | Minnesota |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.13#17 | -0.13#134 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.13#120 | +0.09#45 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.02#83 | +0.02#80 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.17#15 | -0.01#59 |
| Rushing success rate | 48.5%#14 | 38.2%#116 |
| Passing success rate | 38.8%#98 | 40.9%#69 |
| Run stuff rate | 14.3%#14 | 19.4%#93 |
| Passing-down success rate | 26.3%#116 | 28.3%#88 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 24.6%#10 | 34.9%#124 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 44.7%#37 | 43.1%#50 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 35.4%#22 | 42.8%#98 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 72.0%#18 | 54.8%#104 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 51.4%#21 | 57.5%#51 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Iowa schedule · Minnesota schedule · all Week 8 projections
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