Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Iowa 32.6, Northern Illinois 12.9 at Kinnick Stadium in Week 1. That is a heavy edge: Iowa wins about 90% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 19.7 points and 45.5 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, leans low scoring.
Northern Illinois has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results. Iowa has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results.
Expect Northern Illinois to find it hard going: Iowa's elite defense (11th) outranks Northern Illinois's struggling offense (129th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 17.2 points against an average defense). Iowa's strong offense (33rd of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 31.2 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Northern Illinois's struggling defense (134th); that mismatch is where most of Iowa's projected points come from.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Northern Illinois by 3 and Iowa by 42 about 80% of the time.
Iowa gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Iowa by about 17.6. The game is on BTN.
Result: Northern Illinois 0, Iowa 40. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 20.3 points and the total by 5.5.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Northern Illinois / Iowa) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Iowa -29.5 → Iowa -31.75 | 43.5 → 44.5 | +3750 / -55000 |
| Bovada | Iowa -29.5 → Iowa -32 | 43.5 → 44.5 | +4500 / -100000 |
| DraftKings | Iowa -29.5 → Iowa -31.5 | 44.5 | +3000 / -10000 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Iowa win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Iowa -19.5 | 45.5 | 90% |
| Market consensus | Iowa -32 | 44.5 | 97% |
| Blended projection | Iowa -30 | 45.8 | 98% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Iowa win probability
- model 90% · market (no-vig) 97% · difference -7 pts
- Margin
- model Iowa -19.7 · market Iowa -31.75 · difference -12.0 pts (Iowa view)
- Total
- model 45.5 · market 44.5 · difference +1.0
Model margin is 12.0 pts more toward Northern Illinois than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Northern Illinois 12.9, Iowa 32.6 | Iowa 90%right winner | 20.3 | 5.5 |
| New formula | Northern Illinois 9.6, Iowa 39.3 | Iowa 96%right winner | 10.2 | 8.9 |
Final: Northern Illinois 0, Iowa 40. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Northern Illinois vs Iowa: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Northern Illinois | Iowa |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 17.1#129 | 29.3#54 |
| Points allowed per game | 24.3#64 | 16.1#8 |
| Yards per play | 4.78#133 | 5.41#108 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.48#45 | 5.02#14 |
| Rushing yards per game | 197.8#30 | 186.6#43 |
| Net passing yards per game | 94.1#134 | 140.2#128 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 191.8#113 | 124.5#14 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 170.4#7 | 174.0#15 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.67#9 | 0.69#12 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.83#103 | 0.92#80 |
| Sacks per game | 1.17#124 | 1.92#72 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.50#39 | 1.38#29 |
| Stat | Northern Illinois | Iowa |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.06#118 | +0.03#68 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.04#91 | -0.07#22 |
| Success rate | 36.2%#128 | 44.6%#46 |
| Success rate allowed | 44.6%#109 | 38.8%#32 |
| Explosive play rate | 9.5%#129 | 11.3%#102 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 11.4%#43 | 9.3%#10 |
| Havoc rate | 11.0%#110 | 12.1%#80 |
| Havoc allowed | 11.9%#69 | 8.7%#4 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.53#117 | 4.50#19 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.74#56 | 3.57#38 |
| Average starting field position | own 28#111 | own 34#5 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 32#123 | own 27#9 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 61.1#122 | 60.5#124 |
| Stat | Northern Illinois | Iowa |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.01#84 | +0.13#17 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.18#131 | -0.13#120 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.06#111 | +0.02#83 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.01#74 | -0.17#15 |
| Rushing success rate | 38.8%#111 | 48.5%#14 |
| Passing success rate | 27.4%#136 | 38.8%#98 |
| Run stuff rate | 18.3%#69 | 14.3%#14 |
| Passing-down success rate | 23.9%#129 | 26.3%#116 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 36.5%#130 | 24.6%#10 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 32.2%#132 | 44.7%#37 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 44.1%#107 | 35.4%#22 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 48.2%#124 | 72.0%#18 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 61.9%#79 | 51.4%#21 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Northern Illinois schedule · Iowa schedule · all Week 1 projections
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