Matchup analysis
Our model projects Northwestern 25, Minnesota 21 at Huntington Bank Stadium in Week 12. That is a lean: Northwestern wins about 61% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 4.3 points and 45.5 combined points. Tags: upset alert, leans low scoring.
Northwestern (No. 20) is 6-1 against the 44th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 34.7 and allowing 16.6 points per game (+18.1 per game). Minnesota is 5-2 against the 75th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 26.6 and allowing 20.1 points per game (+6.5 per game).
Northwestern's middle-of-the-pack offense (45th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 29.6 points against an average defense) meets Minnesota's strong defense (37th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Northwestern puts up. Northwestern's strong defense (29th) should limit Minnesota's below-average offense (92nd of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 24.4 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Northwestern by 27 and Minnesota by 18 about 80% of the time.
Minnesota gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Northwestern is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Northwestern vs Minnesota: stat comparison
| Stat | Northwestern | Minnesota |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 34.7#35 | 26.6#83 |
| Points allowed per game | 16.6#22 | 20.1#35 |
| Yards per play | 6.92#16 | 5.41#117 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.46#59 | 4.82#16 |
| Rushing yards per game | 216.0#21 | 107.0#135 |
| Net passing yards per game | 215.3#82 | 230.7#64 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 169.6#92 | 134.4#41 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 205.3#67 | 146.0#6 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.43#18 | 1.00#82 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.43#12 | 1.29#21 |
| Sacks per game | 1.86#81 | 2.14#57 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.14#90 | 0.86#10 |
| Stat | Northwestern | Minnesota |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.23#11 | -0.05#130 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.01#50 | -0.07#19 |
| Success rate | 50.5%#10 | 39.8%#113 |
| Success rate allowed | 41.8%#76 | 39.7%#48 |
| Explosive play rate | 18.3%#2 | 11.9%#91 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 10.5%#35 | 11.0%#48 |
| Havoc rate | 13.3%#87 | 17.7%#10 |
| Havoc allowed | 14.1%#94 | 13.6%#79 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.79#22 | 3.57#108 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 2.71#2 | 4.50#117 |
| Average starting field position | own 29#84 | own 34#5 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 27#36 | own 26#15 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 62.3#106 | 62.4#103 |
| Stat | Northwestern | Minnesota |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.16#24 | -0.14#137 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.31#13 | +0.00#104 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.13#120 | +0.05#79 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.09#26 | -0.17#7 |
| Rushing success rate | 47.8%#32 | 36.8%#128 |
| Passing success rate | 53.9%#6 | 41.3%#74 |
| Run stuff rate | 20.1%#115 | 22.9%#134 |
| Passing-down success rate | 40.0%#10 | 22.2%#137 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 27.3%#39 | 31.3%#96 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 47.6%#25 | 35.4%#112 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 38.5%#68 | 30.1%#8 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 74.2%#16 | 59.9%#82 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 42.9%#11 | 66.4%#98 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Northwestern schedule · Minnesota schedule · all Week 12 projections
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