Matchup analysis
Our model projects Northwestern 29, Illinois 24 at Ryan Field in Week 13. That is a lean: Northwestern wins about 62% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 4.6 points and 52.5 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
Illinois is 4-3 against the 36th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 30.3 and allowing 25.3 points per game (+5 per game). Northwestern (No. 20) is 6-1 against the 46th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 34.7 and allowing 16.6 points per game (+18.1 per game).
Illinois's strong offense (41st of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 29.9 points against an average defense) meets Northwestern's strong defense (29th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Illinois puts up. Northwestern's middle-of-the-pack offense (45th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 29.6 points against an average defense) meets Illinois's middle-of-the-pack defense (51st) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Northwestern puts up.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Illinois by 18 and Northwestern by 27 about 80% of the time.
Northwestern gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Northwestern by about 2.5.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Illinois / Northwestern) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Illinois -3.5 | 52.5 | -175 / +145 |
| DraftKings | Illinois -3.5 | 52.5 | -175 / +145 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Northwestern win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Northwestern -4.5 | 52.5 | 62% |
| Market consensus | Illinois -3.5 | 52.5 | 39% |
| Blended projection | Illinois -2 | 53.1 | 44% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Northwestern win probability
- model 62% · market (no-vig) 39% · difference +23 pts
- Margin
- model Northwestern -4.6 · market Illinois -3.5 · difference +8.1 pts (Northwestern view)
- Total
- model 52.5 · market 52.5 · difference 0.0
Model margin is 8.1 pts more toward Northwestern than the market.
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Illinois vs Northwestern: stat comparison
| Stat | Illinois | Northwestern |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 30.3#58 | 34.7#35 |
| Points allowed per game | 25.3#81 | 16.6#22 |
| Yards per play | 6.67#25 | 6.92#16 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.21#110 | 5.46#59 |
| Rushing yards per game | 170.1#62 | 216.0#21 |
| Net passing yards per game | 239.7#52 | 215.3#82 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 141.7#53 | 169.6#92 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 261.1#128 | 205.3#67 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.71#46 | 0.43#18 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.57#111 | 1.43#12 |
| Sacks per game | 1.00#131 | 1.86#81 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.29#33 | 2.14#90 |
| Stat | Illinois | Northwestern |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.13#48 | +0.23#11 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.18#125 | +0.01#50 |
| Success rate | 47.6%#25 | 50.5%#10 |
| Success rate allowed | 46.2%#127 | 41.8%#76 |
| Explosive play rate | 13.6%#49 | 18.3%#2 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 11.1%#56 | 10.5%#35 |
| Havoc rate | 10.6%#133 | 13.3%#87 |
| Havoc allowed | 10.9%#25 | 14.1%#94 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.18#56 | 4.79#22 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.62#122 | 2.71#2 |
| Average starting field position | own 29#95 | own 29#84 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 29#83 | own 27#36 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 61.4#114 | 62.3#106 |
| Stat | Illinois | Northwestern |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.12#47 | +0.16#24 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.13#53 | +0.31#13 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.08#94 | +0.13#120 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.28#129 | -0.09#26 |
| Rushing success rate | 44.7%#66 | 47.8%#32 |
| Passing success rate | 50.2%#16 | 53.9%#6 |
| Run stuff rate | 12.0%#7 | 20.1%#115 |
| Passing-down success rate | 36.7%#22 | 40.0%#10 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 38.3%#129 | 27.3%#39 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 48.2%#22 | 47.6%#25 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 41.1%#96 | 38.5%#68 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 63.2%#63 | 74.2%#16 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 68.0%#112 | 42.9%#11 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Illinois schedule · Northwestern schedule · all Week 13 projections
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