Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Northwestern 29.3, Michigan State 19.8 at Spartan Stadium in Week 7. That is a solid edge: Northwestern wins about 73% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 9.5 points and 49 combined points.
Northwestern (No. 25) is 4-1, scoring 35.4 and allowing 16.2 points per game (+19.2 per game). Michigan State is 2-4, scoring 21.3 and allowing 25.7 points per game (-4.4 per game).
The most lopsided unit battle: Northwestern's middle-of-the-pack offense (46th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 29.7 points against an average defense) against Michigan State's middle-of-the-pack defense (67th). Northwestern's strong defense (31st) should limit Michigan State's below-average offense (95th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 23.4 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Northwestern by 32 and Michigan State by 13 about 80% of the time.
Michigan State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Northwestern is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on Peacock.
Result: Northwestern 24, Michigan State 21. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 6.5 points and the total by 4.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Northwestern / Michigan State) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Northwestern -8.5 → Northwestern -7.25 | 48 → 50.25 | -324 / +257.5 |
| DraftKings | Northwestern -8.5 → Northwestern -7.5 | 47.5 → 50.5 | -298 / +240 |
| Bovada | Northwestern -8.5 → Northwestern -7 | 48.5 → 50 | -350 / +275 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Michigan State win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Northwestern -9.5 | 49.0 | 27% |
| Market consensus | Northwestern -7 | 50.3 | 27% |
| Blended projection | Northwestern -7.5 | 51.0 | 30% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Michigan State win probability
- model 27% · market (no-vig) 27% · difference -0 pts
- Margin
- model Northwestern -9.5 · market Northwestern -7.25 · difference -2.2 pts (Michigan State view)
- Total
- model 49.0 · market 50.25 · difference -1.2
Model margin is 2.2 pts more toward Northwestern than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Northwestern 29.3, Michigan State 19.8 | Northwestern 73%right winner | 6.5 | 4.0 |
| New formula | Northwestern 28.9, Michigan State 20.3 | Northwestern 72%right winner | 5.6 | 4.2 |
Final: Northwestern 24, Michigan State 21. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Northwestern vs Michigan State: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Northwestern | Michigan State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 35.4#37 | 21.3#113 |
| Points allowed per game | 16.2#23 | 25.7#88 |
| Yards per play | 7.12#14 | 4.80#133 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.44#60 | 5.77#85 |
| Rushing yards per game | 210.8#32 | 144.2#103 |
| Net passing yards per game | 218.0#77 | 166.2#120 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 161.4#80 | 144.7#55 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 229.0#101 | 197.8#63 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.40#25 | 1.00#80 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.20#32 | 0.50#115 |
| Sacks per game | 1.60#99 | 1.17#119 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.80#74 | 3.17#129 |
| Stat | Northwestern | Michigan State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.24#15 | -0.03#122 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.05#79 | +0.08#93 |
| Success rate | 51.3%#9 | 43.3%#67 |
| Success rate allowed | 43.1%#95 | 42.0%#85 |
| Explosive play rate | 18.8%#1 | 7.9%#137 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 10.9%#47 | 10.9%#46 |
| Havoc rate | 13.8%#80 | 11.7%#113 |
| Havoc allowed | 13.3%#71 | 14.7%#108 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.82#18 | 3.66#105 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.00#11 | 4.44#113 |
| Average starting field position | own 28#110 | own 32#32 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 27#34 | own 29#80 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 60.2#117 | 64.7#79 |
| Stat | Northwestern | Michigan State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.14#38 | -0.04#117 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.36#10 | -0.03#113 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.08#91 | -0.02#43 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.03#61 | +0.20#111 |
| Rushing success rate | 49.0%#30 | 43.2%#87 |
| Passing success rate | 54.2%#11 | 43.4%#60 |
| Run stuff rate | 19.6%#106 | 16.3%#59 |
| Passing-down success rate | 39.7%#11 | 30.9%#78 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 25.9%#34 | 30.8%#89 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 42.1%#66 | 41.0%#78 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 41.6%#95 | 43.2%#108 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 77.3%#9 | 60.0%#89 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 47.1%#22 | 63.2%#92 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Northwestern schedule · Michigan State schedule · all Week 7 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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