Matchup analysis
Our model projects South Dakota State 31, Southern Illinois 19 at Saluki Stadium in Week 11. That is a solid edge: South Dakota State wins about 78% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 11.6 points and 50.4 combined points.
South Dakota State is 6-2 against the 44th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 37.1 and allowing 15.8 points per game (+21.3 per game). Southern Illinois is 4-5 against the 14th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 22.6 and allowing 26.3 points per game (-3.7 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between South Dakota State by 34 and Southern Illinois by 11 about 80% of the time.
Southern Illinois gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. South Dakota State is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on ESPN+.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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South Dakota State vs Southern Illinois: stat comparison
| Stat | South Dakota State | Southern Illinois |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 37.1 | 22.6 |
| Points allowed per game | 15.8 | 26.3 |
| Yards per play | 6.86 | 5.18 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.02 | 6.19 |
| Rushing yards per game | 271.5 | 160.1 |
| Net passing yards per game | 190.6 | 188.9 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 129.8 | 161.1 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 176.9 | 220.2 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.38 | 1.11 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.13 | 1.33 |
| Sacks per game | 1.63 | 1.89 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.25 | 2.22 |
| Stat | South Dakota State | Southern Illinois |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.18 | +0.01 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.04 | +0.04 |
| Success rate | 46.5% | 37.8% |
| Success rate allowed | 37.2% | 39.8% |
| Explosive play rate | 14.4% | 12.3% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 9.1% | 14.4% |
| Havoc rate | 17.3% | 14.3% |
| Havoc allowed | 10.9% | 13.9% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.70 | 2.40 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.62 | 2.21 |
| Average starting field position | opp 9 | opp 9 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 9 | opp 8 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 67.4 | 67.3 |
| Stat | South Dakota State | Southern Illinois |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.20 | +0.08 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.17 | -0.05 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | 0.00 | +0.03 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.08 | +0.04 |
| Rushing success rate | 50.8% | 40.1% |
| Passing success rate | 44.4% | 33.3% |
| Run stuff rate | 13.8% | 19.2% |
| Passing-down success rate | 32.9% | 32.6% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 25.1% | 31.4% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 41.5% | 38.5% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 35.2% | 40.2% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 41.1% | 36.5% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 57.3% | 37.4% |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: South Dakota State schedule · Southern Illinois schedule · all Week 11 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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