Matchup analysis
Our model projects North Dakota 33, Southern Illinois 21 at Alerus Center in Week 12. That is a solid edge: North Dakota wins about 79% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 12.1 points and 54.7 combined points.
Southern Illinois is 4-5 against the 14th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 22.6 and allowing 26.3 points per game (-3.7 per game). North Dakota is 6-3 against the 33rd-toughest schedule so far, scoring 35.1 and allowing 25.2 points per game (+9.9 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Southern Illinois by 10 and North Dakota by 35 about 80% of the time.
North Dakota gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour North Dakota by about 10. The game is on ESPN+.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Southern Illinois vs North Dakota: stat comparison
| Stat | Southern Illinois | North Dakota |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 22.6 | 35.1 |
| Points allowed per game | 26.3 | 25.2 |
| Yards per play | 5.18 | 6.15 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.19 | 4.99 |
| Rushing yards per game | 160.1 | 207.7 |
| Net passing yards per game | 188.9 | 230.1 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 161.1 | 136.0 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 220.2 | 177.0 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.11 | 1.11 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.33 | 0.78 |
| Sacks per game | 1.89 | 2.44 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.22 | 1.89 |
| Stat | Southern Illinois | North Dakota |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.01 | +0.08 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.04 | -0.07 |
| Success rate | 37.8% | 44.3% |
| Success rate allowed | 39.8% | 35.7% |
| Explosive play rate | 12.3% | 14.2% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 14.4% | 8.8% |
| Havoc rate | 14.3% | 16.6% |
| Havoc allowed | 13.9% | 11.6% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 2.40 | 3.61 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 2.21 | 3.57 |
| Average starting field position | opp 9 | opp 7 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 8 | opp 7 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 67.3 | 71.2 |
| Stat | Southern Illinois | North Dakota |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.08 | +0.08 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.05 | +0.08 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.03 | -0.06 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.04 | -0.08 |
| Rushing success rate | 40.1% | 47.7% |
| Passing success rate | 33.3% | 42.9% |
| Run stuff rate | 19.2% | 15.1% |
| Passing-down success rate | 32.6% | 34.8% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 31.4% | 24.1% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 38.5% | 40.7% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 40.2% | 34.6% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 36.5% | 60.1% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 37.4% | 55.9% |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Southern Illinois schedule · North Dakota schedule · all Week 12 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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