Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected North Dakota 35.4, Portland State 22.4 at Hillsboro Stadium in Week 2. That is a solid edge: North Dakota wins about 80% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 13 points and 57.8 combined points.
North Dakota is 2-0, scoring 52 and allowing 23.5 points per game (+28.5 per game). Portland State is 0-2, scoring 22 and allowing 42 points per game (-20 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between North Dakota by 36 and Portland State by 10 about 80% of the time.
Portland State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. North Dakota is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: North Dakota 47, Portland State 23. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 11 points and the total by 12.2.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (North Dakota / Portland State) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | North Dakota -25.5 | 58.5 → 60.5 | -4000 / +1180 |
| DraftKings | North Dakota -25.5 | 58.5 → 60.5 | -4000 / +1180 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Portland State win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | North Dakota -13 | 57.8 | 20% |
| Market consensus | North Dakota -25.5 | 60.5 | 7% |
| Blended projection | North Dakota -23.5 | 60.3 | 5% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Portland State win probability
- model 20% · market (no-vig) 7% · difference +12 pts
- Margin
- model North Dakota -13 · market North Dakota -25.5 · difference +12.5 pts (Portland State view)
- Total
- model 57.8 · market 60.5 · difference -2.7
Model margin is 12.5 pts more toward Portland State than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | North Dakota 35.4, Portland State 22.4 | North Dakota 80%right winner | 11.0 | 12.2 |
| New formula | North Dakota 40.2, Portland State 23.8 | North Dakota 85%right winner | 7.6 | 6.1 |
Final: North Dakota 47, Portland State 23. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
North Dakota vs Portland State: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | North Dakota | Portland State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 32.9 | 16.2 |
| Points allowed per game | 19.9 | 42.7 |
| Yards per play | 5.74 | 5.30 |
| Yards per play allowed | 4.99 | 7.25 |
| Rushing yards per game | 200.7 | 120.5 |
| Net passing yards per game | 189.9 | 219.4 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 121.6 | 265.2 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 207.0 | 195.5 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.07 | 1.83 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.64 | 0.58 |
| Sacks per game | 2.86 | 1.33 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.14 | 1.75 |
| Stat | North Dakota | Portland State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.02 | -0.16 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.13 | +0.22 |
| Success rate | 42.4% | 37.9% |
| Success rate allowed | 35.2% | 47.1% |
| Explosive play rate | 13.0% | 10.6% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 9.8% | 16.9% |
| Havoc rate | 15.4% | 11.5% |
| Havoc allowed | 11.3% | 15.8% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.01 | 0.87 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 2.25 | 2.30 |
| Average starting field position | opp 5 | opp 13 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 5 | opp 10 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 68.0 | 64.1 |
| Stat | North Dakota | Portland State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.03 | -0.17 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.02 | -0.16 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.10 | +0.29 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.15 | +0.13 |
| Rushing success rate | 44.5% | 36.0% |
| Passing success rate | 40.5% | 38.5% |
| Run stuff rate | 18.8% | 29.6% |
| Passing-down success rate | 30.6% | 26.8% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 25.7% | 31.8% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 39.7% | 35.5% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 32.8% | 47.2% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 45.4% | 13.5% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 37.1% | 33.1% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: North Dakota schedule · Portland State schedule · all Week 2 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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