Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected North Dakota 33.9, Northern Iowa 25.2 at UNI-Dome in Week 6. That is a solid edge: North Dakota wins about 72% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 8.7 points and 59 combined points.
North Dakota is 5-1, scoring 42.5 and allowing 27.8 points per game (+14.7 per game). Northern Iowa is 2-2, scoring 27 and allowing 31 points per game (-4 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between North Dakota by 31 and Northern Iowa by 14 about 80% of the time.
Northern Iowa gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. North Dakota is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: North Dakota 17, Northern Iowa 24. Northern Iowa won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 15.7 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (North Dakota / Northern Iowa) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | North Dakota -11.5 → North Dakota -13.5 | 58.5 | -468 / +337 |
| DraftKings | North Dakota -11.5 → North Dakota -13.5 | 58.5 | -468 / +337 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Northern Iowa win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | North Dakota -8.5 | 59.0 | 28% |
| Market consensus | North Dakota -13.5 | 58.5 | 22% |
| Blended projection | North Dakota -13 | 58.7 | 19% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Northern Iowa win probability
- model 28% · market (no-vig) 22% · difference +7 pts
- Margin
- model North Dakota -8.7 · market North Dakota -13.5 · difference +4.8 pts (Northern Iowa view)
- Total
- model 59.0 · market 58.5 · difference +0.5
Model margin is 4.8 pts more toward Northern Iowa than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | North Dakota 33.9, Northern Iowa 25.2 | North Dakota 72%wrong winner | 15.7 | 18.0 |
| New formula | North Dakota 34.2, Northern Iowa 24.3 | North Dakota 74%wrong winner | 16.9 | 17.5 |
Final: North Dakota 17, Northern Iowa 24. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
North Dakota vs Northern Iowa: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | North Dakota | Northern Iowa |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 32.9 | 17.3 |
| Points allowed per game | 19.9 | 26.8 |
| Yards per play | 5.74 | 5.15 |
| Yards per play allowed | 4.99 | 6.09 |
| Rushing yards per game | 200.7 | 140.1 |
| Net passing yards per game | 189.9 | 186.8 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 121.6 | 196.1 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 207.0 | 204.4 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.07 | 1.42 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.64 | 0.58 |
| Sacks per game | 2.86 | 1.58 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.14 | 2.42 |
| Stat | North Dakota | Northern Iowa |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.02 | -0.06 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.13 | +0.04 |
| Success rate | 42.4% | 39.8% |
| Success rate allowed | 35.2% | 45.6% |
| Explosive play rate | 13.0% | 10.8% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 9.8% | 14.5% |
| Havoc rate | 15.4% | 10.9% |
| Havoc allowed | 11.3% | 13.0% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.01 | 1.83 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 2.25 | 1.83 |
| Average starting field position | opp 5 | opp 7 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 5 | opp 7 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 68.0 | 63.4 |
| Stat | North Dakota | Northern Iowa |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.03 | -0.02 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.02 | -0.10 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.10 | +0.01 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.15 | +0.05 |
| Rushing success rate | 44.5% | 40.7% |
| Passing success rate | 40.5% | 38.3% |
| Run stuff rate | 18.8% | 16.6% |
| Passing-down success rate | 30.6% | 25.3% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 25.7% | 31.5% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 39.7% | 39.4% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 32.8% | 45.8% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 45.4% | 25.1% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 37.1% | 33.9% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: North Dakota schedule · Northern Iowa schedule · all Week 6 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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