Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Nebraska 49.7, North Dakota 14.6 at Memorial Stadium (Lincoln, NE) in Week 3. That is a heavy edge: Nebraska wins about 99% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 35.1 points and 64.3 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, blowout brewing, leans high scoring.
North Dakota is 3-0, scoring 50.3 and allowing 23.3 points per game (+27 per game). Nebraska is 2-0, scoring 52.5 and allowing 14 points per game (+38.5 per game).
North Dakota plays in the FCS, so this is a cross-division game. Our ratings put FCS teams on the FBS scale through a measured gap from every FBS-vs-FCS result, which is why Nebraska's projected edge is large even if the records look similar. Cross-division projections are a little less precise than FBS-vs-FBS ones.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Nebraska by 13 and Nebraska by 58 about 80% of the time.
Nebraska gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Nebraska by about 33. The game is on BTN.
Result: North Dakota 7, Nebraska 34. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 8.1 points and the total by 23.3.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (North Dakota / Nebraska) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Nebraska -24.25 → Nebraska -27.25 | 51.25 → 56.5 | +1150 / -2650 |
| DraftKings | Nebraska -24.5 → Nebraska -27.5 | 51.5 → 56.5 | +1300 / -2800 |
| Bovada | Nebraska -24 → Nebraska -27 | 51 → 56.5 | +1000 / -2500 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Nebraska win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Nebraska -35 | 64.3 | 99% |
| Market consensus | Nebraska -27.5 | 56.5 | 92% |
| Blended projection | Nebraska -28.5 | 57.2 | 97% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Nebraska win probability
- model 99% · market (no-vig) 92% · difference +7 pts
- Margin
- model Nebraska -35.1 · market Nebraska -27.25 · difference +7.9 pts (Nebraska view)
- Total
- model 64.3 · market 56.5 · difference +7.8
Model margin is 7.9 pts more toward Nebraska than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | North Dakota 14.6, Nebraska 49.7 | Nebraska 99%right winner | 8.1 | 23.3 |
| New formula | North Dakota 21.4, Nebraska 40.6 | Nebraska 89%right winner | 7.8 | 21.0 |
Final: North Dakota 7, Nebraska 34. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
North Dakota vs Nebraska: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | North Dakota | Nebraska |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 50.3 | 52.5#11 |
| Points allowed per game | 23.3 | 14.0#42 |
| Yards per play | 7.92 | 7.63#19 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.04 | 4.95#50 |
| Rushing yards per game | 258.3 | 265.5#12 |
| Net passing yards per game | 304.0 | 257.0#49 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 93.0 | 120.0#58 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 214.7 | 155.0#35 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.33 | 0.50#49 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.33 | 1.50#33 |
| Sacks per game | 2.00 | 1.50#81 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.33 | 1.50#70 |
| Stat | North Dakota | Nebraska |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.10 | +0.15#36 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.02 | +0.01#62 |
| Success rate | 47.6% | 44.4%#58 |
| Success rate allowed | 37.2% | 39.9%#63 |
| Explosive play rate | 15.5% | 14.4%#39 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 11.1% | 12.0%#84 |
| Havoc rate | 17.3% | 14.1%#71 |
| Havoc allowed | 11.8% | 13.7%#79 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 0.00 | 4.62#35 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 0.00 | 4.44#113 |
| Average starting field position | opp 0 | own 31#65 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 0 | own 28#59 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 71.0 | 68.5#46 |
| Stat | North Dakota | Nebraska |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.06 | +0.19#19 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.14 | +0.12#63 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.02 | +0.05#89 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.01 | -0.03#50 |
| Rushing success rate | 58.3% | 61.0%#6 |
| Passing success rate | 59.5% | 47.2%#53 |
| Run stuff rate | 15.0% | 16.3%#58 |
| Passing-down success rate | 35.8% | 38.6%#23 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 31.1% | 24.6%#32 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 58.8% | 60.9%#12 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 34.1% | 38.5%#75 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 0.0% | 75.1%#26 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 0.0% | 74.0%#110 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: North Dakota schedule · Nebraska schedule · all Week 3 projections
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