Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected South Dakota 30.4, North Dakota 27.8 at The DakotaDome in Week 8. That is a genuine toss-up: South Dakota wins about 57% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 2.6 points and 58.2 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
North Dakota is 6-2, scoring 36.6 and allowing 25.1 points per game (+11.5 per game). South Dakota is 6-2, scoring 39.1 and allowing 24.4 points per game (+14.7 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between North Dakota by 20 and South Dakota by 25 about 80% of the time.
South Dakota gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour South Dakota by about 0.5. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: North Dakota 23, South Dakota 26. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 0.4 points and the total by 9.2.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | North Dakota 27.8, South Dakota 30.4 | South Dakota 57%right winner | 0.4 | 9.2 |
| New formula | Not recorded for this game | |||
Final: North Dakota 23, South Dakota 26. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
North Dakota vs South Dakota: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | North Dakota | South Dakota |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 32.9 | 27.1 |
| Points allowed per game | 19.9 | 26.3 |
| Yards per play | 5.74 | 6.65 |
| Yards per play allowed | 4.99 | 6.00 |
| Rushing yards per game | 200.7 | 198.0 |
| Net passing yards per game | 189.9 | 201.5 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 121.6 | 153.6 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 207.0 | 213.7 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.07 | 0.50 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.64 | 0.86 |
| Sacks per game | 2.86 | 0.93 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.14 | 1.07 |
| Stat | North Dakota | South Dakota |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.02 | +0.14 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.13 | +0.08 |
| Success rate | 42.4% | 46.0% |
| Success rate allowed | 35.2% | 44.0% |
| Explosive play rate | 13.0% | 14.6% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 9.8% | 12.3% |
| Havoc rate | 15.4% | 8.9% |
| Havoc allowed | 11.3% | 11.0% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.01 | 0.95 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 2.25 | 1.57 |
| Average starting field position | opp 5 | opp 5 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 5 | opp 4 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 68.0 | 60.1 |
| Stat | North Dakota | South Dakota |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.03 | +0.07 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.02 | +0.22 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.10 | +0.02 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.15 | +0.14 |
| Rushing success rate | 44.5% | 47.7% |
| Passing success rate | 40.5% | 44.5% |
| Run stuff rate | 18.8% | 18.9% |
| Passing-down success rate | 30.6% | 33.1% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 25.7% | 31.7% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 39.7% | 45.0% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 32.8% | 45.5% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 45.4% | 17.9% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 37.1% | 25.9% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: North Dakota schedule · South Dakota schedule · all Week 8 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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