Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected North Dakota 29.1, Long Island University 14.1 at Alerus Center in Week 1. That is a solid edge: North Dakota wins about 84% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 15 points and 43.2 combined points. Tags: leans low scoring.
Long Island University has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results. North Dakota has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Long Island University by 8 and North Dakota by 38 about 80% of the time.
North Dakota gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour North Dakota by about 12.9. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Long Island University 21, North Dakota 42. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 6 points and the total by 19.8.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Long Island University / North Dakota) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | North Dakota -27.5 | 44.5 | — / — |
| DraftKings | North Dakota -27.5 | 44.5 | — / — |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | North Dakota win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | North Dakota -15 | 43.2 | 84% |
| Market consensus | North Dakota -27.5 | 44.5 | 97% |
| Blended projection | North Dakota -25.5 | 45.7 | 96% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- North Dakota win probability
- model 84% · market (no-vig) —
- Margin
- model North Dakota -15 · market North Dakota -27.5 · difference -12.5 pts (North Dakota view)
- Total
- model 43.2 · market 44.5 · difference -1.3
Model margin is 12.5 pts more toward Long Island University than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Long Island University 14.1, North Dakota 29.1 | North Dakota 84%right winner | 6.0 | 19.8 |
| New formula | Long Island University 12.9, North Dakota 37.7 | North Dakota 93%right winner | 3.9 | 12.4 |
Final: Long Island University 21, North Dakota 42. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Long Island University vs North Dakota: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Long Island University | North Dakota |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 16.4 | 32.9 |
| Points allowed per game | 18.8 | 19.9 |
| Yards per play | 5.32 | 5.74 |
| Yards per play allowed | 4.60 | 4.99 |
| Rushing yards per game | 196.2 | 200.7 |
| Net passing yards per game | 156.6 | 189.9 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 140.7 | 121.6 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 159.4 | 207.0 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.82 | 1.07 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.82 | 1.64 |
| Sacks per game | 1.55 | 2.86 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.09 | 1.14 |
| Stat | Long Island University | North Dakota |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.09 | +0.02 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.10 | -0.13 |
| Success rate | 39.2% | 42.4% |
| Success rate allowed | 38.3% | 35.2% |
| Explosive play rate | 11.2% | 13.0% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 10.5% | 9.8% |
| Havoc rate | 14.0% | 15.4% |
| Havoc allowed | 16.8% | 11.3% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 2.82 | 3.01 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.50 | 2.25 |
| Average starting field position | opp 16 | opp 5 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 13 | opp 5 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 66.3 | 68.0 |
| Stat | Long Island University | North Dakota |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.03 | +0.03 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.16 | +0.02 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.04 | -0.10 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.17 | -0.15 |
| Rushing success rate | 40.8% | 44.5% |
| Passing success rate | 37.8% | 40.5% |
| Run stuff rate | 27.4% | 18.8% |
| Passing-down success rate | 27.9% | 30.6% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 26.1% | 25.7% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 37.8% | 39.7% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 40.6% | 32.8% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 41.5% | 45.4% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 54.4% | 37.1% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Long Island University schedule · North Dakota schedule · all Week 1 projections
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