Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Illinois State 30.3, Southern Illinois 24.5 at Saluki Stadium in Week 7. That is a lean: Illinois State wins about 65% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 5.8 points and 54.7 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
Illinois State is 4-2, scoring 38.2 and allowing 17.7 points per game (+20.5 per game). Southern Illinois is 3-4, scoring 24.1 and allowing 26.4 points per game (-2.3 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Illinois State by 28 and Southern Illinois by 17 about 80% of the time.
Southern Illinois gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Illinois State is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on ESPNU.
Result: Illinois State 35, Southern Illinois 14. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 15.2 points and the total by 5.7.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Illinois State / Southern Illinois) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Illinois State -7.5 → Illinois State -7 | 54.5 | -225 / +176 |
| DraftKings | Illinois State -7.5 → Illinois State -7 | 54.5 | -225 / +176 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Southern Illinois win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Illinois State -6 | 54.7 | 35% |
| Market consensus | Illinois State -7 | 54.5 | 34% |
| Blended projection | Illinois State -7 | 55.0 | 32% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Southern Illinois win probability
- model 35% · market (no-vig) 34% · difference +1 pts
- Margin
- model Illinois State -5.8 · market Illinois State -7 · difference +1.2 pts (Southern Illinois view)
- Total
- model 54.7 · market 54.5 · difference +0.2
Model margin is 1.2 pts more toward Southern Illinois than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Illinois State 30.3, Southern Illinois 24.5 | Illinois State 65%right winner | 15.2 | 5.7 |
| New formula | Illinois State 30.2, Southern Illinois 24.0 | Illinois State 66%right winner | 14.8 | 5.3 |
Final: Illinois State 35, Southern Illinois 14. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Illinois State vs Southern Illinois: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Illinois State | Southern Illinois |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 30.8 | 36.4 |
| Points allowed per game | 25.7 | 26.7 |
| Yards per play | 5.89 | 6.96 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.91 | 6.19 |
| Rushing yards per game | 171.5 | 215.3 |
| Net passing yards per game | 229.5 | 237.9 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 144.4 | 202.4 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 236.4 | 211.2 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.00 | 0.92 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.35 | 1.42 |
| Sacks per game | 2.00 | 1.50 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.06 | 1.00 |
| Stat | Illinois State | Southern Illinois |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.06 | +0.13 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.06 | +0.09 |
| Success rate | 45.7% | 47.3% |
| Success rate allowed | 42.9% | 45.0% |
| Explosive play rate | 12.0% | 13.8% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.3% | 12.7% |
| Havoc rate | 14.1% | 13.1% |
| Havoc allowed | 9.2% | 8.9% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 1.27 | 4.19 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 1.54 | 3.65 |
| Average starting field position | opp 4 | opp 5 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 5 | opp 4 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 68.1 | 65.1 |
| Stat | Illinois State | Southern Illinois |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.01 | +0.17 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.11 | +0.08 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.03 | +0.08 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.09 | +0.10 |
| Rushing success rate | 45.6% | 54.4% |
| Passing success rate | 45.8% | 43.8% |
| Run stuff rate | 15.8% | 15.3% |
| Passing-down success rate | 36.2% | 35.5% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 31.2% | 34.2% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 45.7% | 53.0% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 40.9% | 46.8% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 19.3% | 64.0% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 23.9% | 53.0% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Illinois State schedule · Southern Illinois schedule · all Week 7 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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