Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Illinois State 35.9, St. Francis (IL) 19.6 at Hancock Stadium in Week 1. That is a heavy edge: Illinois State wins about 86% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 16.3 points and 55.5 combined points. Tags: favorite holds.
St. Francis (IL) has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results. Illinois State has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between St. Francis (IL) by 6 and Illinois State by 39 about 80% of the time.
Illinois State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Illinois State by about 14.2. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: St. Francis (IL) 0, Illinois State 76. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 59.7 points and the total by 20.5.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | St. Francis (IL) 19.6, Illinois State 35.9 | Illinois State 86%right winner | 59.7 | 20.5 |
| New formula | St. Francis (IL) 16.5, Illinois State 38.1 | Illinois State 90%right winner | 54.4 | 21.4 |
Final: St. Francis (IL) 0, Illinois State 76. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
More: St. Francis (IL) schedule · Illinois State schedule · all Week 1 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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