Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Northern Illinois 30.8, Illinois State 18 at Huskie Stadium in Week 2. That is a solid edge: Northern Illinois wins about 80% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 12.8 points and 48.8 combined points.
Illinois State is 2-0, scoring 58.5 and allowing 5 points per game (+53.5 per game). Northern Illinois is 0-1, scoring 0 and allowing 40 points per game (-40 per game).
Illinois State plays in the FCS, so this is a cross-division game. Our ratings put FCS teams on the FBS scale through a measured gap from every FBS-vs-FCS result, which is why Northern Illinois's projected edge is large even if the records look similar. Cross-division projections are a little less precise than FBS-vs-FBS ones.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Illinois State by 10 and Northern Illinois by 35 about 80% of the time.
Northern Illinois gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Northern Illinois by about 10.7. The game is on MW+.
Result: Illinois State 28, Northern Illinois 24. Illinois State won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 16.8 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Illinois State / Northern Illinois) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Illinois State -4.75 → Illinois State -2.5 | 48.25 → 47.75 | -179 / +149.5 |
| Bovada | Illinois State -5 → Illinois State -2.5 | 48 | -210 / +175 |
| DraftKings | Illinois State -4.5 → Illinois State -2.5 | 48.5 → 47.5 | -148 / +124 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Northern Illinois win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Northern Illinois -13 | 48.8 | 80% |
| Market consensus | Illinois State -2.5 | 47.8 | 39% |
| Blended projection | Pick'em | 48.8 | 50% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Northern Illinois win probability
- model 80% · market (no-vig) 39% · difference +41 pts
- Margin
- model Northern Illinois -12.8 · market Illinois State -2.5 · difference +15.3 pts (Northern Illinois view)
- Total
- model 48.8 · market 47.75 · difference +1.0
Model margin is 15.3 pts more toward Northern Illinois than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Illinois State 18.0, Northern Illinois 30.8 | Northern Illinois 80%wrong winner | 16.8 | 3.2 |
| New formula | Illinois State 26.7, Northern Illinois 26.0 | Illinois State 52%right winner | 3.3 | 0.7 |
Final: Illinois State 28, Northern Illinois 24. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Illinois State vs Northern Illinois: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Illinois State | Northern Illinois |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 30.8 | 17.1#129 |
| Points allowed per game | 25.7 | 24.3#64 |
| Yards per play | 5.89 | 4.78#133 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.91 | 5.48#45 |
| Rushing yards per game | 171.5 | 197.8#30 |
| Net passing yards per game | 229.5 | 94.1#134 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 144.4 | 191.8#113 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 236.4 | 170.4#7 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.00 | 0.67#9 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.35 | 0.83#103 |
| Sacks per game | 2.00 | 1.17#124 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.06 | 1.50#39 |
| Stat | Illinois State | Northern Illinois |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.06 | -0.06#118 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.06 | +0.04#91 |
| Success rate | 45.7% | 36.2%#128 |
| Success rate allowed | 42.9% | 44.6%#109 |
| Explosive play rate | 12.0% | 9.5%#129 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.3% | 11.4%#43 |
| Havoc rate | 14.1% | 11.0%#110 |
| Havoc allowed | 9.2% | 11.9%#69 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 1.27 | 3.53#117 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 1.54 | 3.74#56 |
| Average starting field position | opp 4 | own 28#111 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 5 | own 32#123 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 68.1 | 61.1#122 |
| Stat | Illinois State | Northern Illinois |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.01 | +0.01#84 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.11 | -0.18#131 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.03 | +0.06#111 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.09 | +0.01#74 |
| Rushing success rate | 45.6% | 38.8%#111 |
| Passing success rate | 45.8% | 27.4%#136 |
| Run stuff rate | 15.8% | 18.3%#69 |
| Passing-down success rate | 36.2% | 23.9%#129 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 31.2% | 36.5%#130 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 45.7% | 32.2%#132 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 40.9% | 44.1%#107 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 19.3% | 48.2%#124 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 23.9% | 61.9%#79 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Illinois State schedule · Northern Illinois schedule · all Week 2 projections
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