Matchup analysis
Our model projects Illinois State 28, South Dakota 26 at Hancock Stadium in Week 12. That is a genuine toss-up: Illinois State wins about 56% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 2.3 points and 53.8 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
South Dakota is 7-2 against the 29th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 37.7 and allowing 24.2 points per game (+13.5 per game). Illinois State is 6-2 against the 59th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 35.1 and allowing 16.3 points per game (+18.8 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between South Dakota by 20 and Illinois State by 25 about 80% of the time.
Illinois State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Illinois State by about 0.2. The game is on ESPN+.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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South Dakota vs Illinois State: stat comparison
| Stat | South Dakota | Illinois State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 37.7 | 35.1 |
| Points allowed per game | 24.2 | 16.3 |
| Yards per play | 6.87 | 5.78 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.43 | 5.21 |
| Rushing yards per game | 201.7 | 185.6 |
| Net passing yards per game | 217.2 | 220.0 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 176.4 | 114.6 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 189.8 | 193.5 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.89 | 1.00 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.78 | 1.00 |
| Sacks per game | 2.00 | 1.75 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.56 | 1.13 |
| Stat | South Dakota | Illinois State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.14 | +0.09 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.02 | -0.14 |
| Success rate | 45.2% | 43.7% |
| Success rate allowed | 39.4% | 40.2% |
| Explosive play rate | 13.9% | 11.6% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 10.4% | 8.9% |
| Havoc rate | 15.5% | 15.1% |
| Havoc allowed | 14.1% | 11.5% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.08 | 4.06 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.41 | 3.64 |
| Average starting field position | opp 8 | opp 9 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 9 | opp 9 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 61.0 | 70.1 |
| Stat | South Dakota | Illinois State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.08 | +0.11 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.23 | +0.07 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.04 | -0.13 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.08 | -0.15 |
| Rushing success rate | 45.1% | 47.6% |
| Passing success rate | 48.8% | 42.8% |
| Run stuff rate | 19.5% | 17.1% |
| Passing-down success rate | 31.2% | 35.5% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 24.3% | 25.6% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 46.2% | 53.8% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 38.4% | 37.0% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 62.9% | 68.1% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 70.0% | 55.2% |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: South Dakota schedule · Illinois State schedule · all Week 12 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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