Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Illinois State 34.9, Western Illinois 24.3 at Hanson Field in Week 1. That is a solid edge: Illinois State wins about 76% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 10.6 points and 59.3 combined points.
Illinois State is 1-0, scoring 76 and allowing 0 points per game (+76 per game). Western Illinois is 1-0, scoring 65 and allowing 14 points per game (+51 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Illinois State by 33 and Western Illinois by 12 about 80% of the time.
Western Illinois gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Illinois State is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Illinois State 41, Western Illinois 10. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 20.4 points and the total by 8.3.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Illinois State / Western Illinois) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Illinois State -23.5 → Illinois State -20.5 | 59.5 → 58.5 | -2500 / +990 |
| DraftKings | Illinois State -23.5 → Illinois State -20.5 | 59.5 → 58.5 | -2500 / +990 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Western Illinois win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Illinois State -10.5 | 59.3 | 24% |
| Market consensus | Illinois State -20.5 | 58.5 | 9% |
| Blended projection | Illinois State -19 | 58.7 | 10% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Western Illinois win probability
- model 24% · market (no-vig) 9% · difference +16 pts
- Margin
- model Illinois State -10.6 · market Illinois State -20.5 · difference +9.9 pts (Western Illinois view)
- Total
- model 59.3 · market 58.5 · difference +0.8
Model margin is 9.9 pts more toward Western Illinois than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Illinois State 34.9, Western Illinois 24.3 | Illinois State 76%right winner | 20.4 | 8.3 |
| New formula | Illinois State 37.4, Western Illinois 27.5 | Illinois State 73%right winner | 21.1 | 14.0 |
Final: Illinois State 41, Western Illinois 10. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Illinois State vs Western Illinois: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Illinois State | Western Illinois |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 30.8 | 23.1 |
| Points allowed per game | 25.7 | 34.8 |
| Yards per play | 5.89 | 5.24 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.91 | 6.85 |
| Rushing yards per game | 171.5 | 125.7 |
| Net passing yards per game | 229.5 | 224.8 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 144.4 | 212.3 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 236.4 | 242.0 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.00 | 0.82 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.35 | 0.91 |
| Sacks per game | 2.00 | 2.36 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.06 | 2.45 |
| Stat | Illinois State | Western Illinois |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.06 | -0.06 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.06 | +0.11 |
| Success rate | 45.7% | 37.7% |
| Success rate allowed | 42.9% | 45.3% |
| Explosive play rate | 12.0% | 10.3% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.3% | 15.2% |
| Havoc rate | 14.1% | 10.8% |
| Havoc allowed | 9.2% | 12.4% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 1.27 | 3.40 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 1.54 | 4.08 |
| Average starting field position | opp 4 | opp 12 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 5 | opp 10 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 68.1 | 66.9 |
| Stat | Illinois State | Western Illinois |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.01 | -0.01 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.11 | -0.10 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.03 | +0.10 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.09 | +0.12 |
| Rushing success rate | 45.6% | 42.1% |
| Passing success rate | 45.8% | 35.3% |
| Run stuff rate | 15.8% | 18.4% |
| Passing-down success rate | 36.2% | 23.1% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 31.2% | 30.0% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 45.7% | 31.2% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 40.9% | 37.4% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 19.3% | 56.3% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 23.9% | 57.6% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Illinois State schedule · Western Illinois schedule · all Week 1 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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