Matchup analysis
Our model projects Illinois State 43, Murray State 12 at Hancock Stadium in Week 9. That is a heavy edge: Illinois State wins about 98% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 31.3 points and 54.8 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, blowout brewing.
Murray State is 1-7 against the 1st-toughest schedule so far, scoring 14.8 and allowing 41.8 points per game (-27 per game). Illinois State is 6-2 against the 59th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 35.1 and allowing 16.3 points per game (+18.8 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Illinois State by 9 and Illinois State by 54 about 80% of the time.
Illinois State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Illinois State by about 29.2. The game is on ESPN+.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Murray State vs Illinois State: stat comparison
| Stat | Murray State | Illinois State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 14.8 | 35.1 |
| Points allowed per game | 41.8 | 16.3 |
| Yards per play | 4.86 | 5.78 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.32 | 5.21 |
| Rushing yards per game | 124.5 | 185.6 |
| Net passing yards per game | 158.6 | 220.0 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 226.1 | 114.6 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 190.4 | 193.5 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.13 | 1.00 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.50 | 1.00 |
| Sacks per game | 1.50 | 1.75 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.38 | 1.13 |
| Stat | Murray State | Illinois State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.05 | +0.09 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.14 | -0.14 |
| Success rate | 37.8% | 43.7% |
| Success rate allowed | 48.8% | 40.2% |
| Explosive play rate | 9.5% | 11.6% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 15.3% | 8.9% |
| Havoc rate | 11.8% | 15.1% |
| Havoc allowed | 13.3% | 11.5% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 1.09 | 4.06 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 2.46 | 3.64 |
| Average starting field position | opp 18 | opp 9 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 15 | opp 9 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 58.3 | 70.1 |
| Stat | Murray State | Illinois State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.03 | +0.11 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.08 | +0.07 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.13 | -0.13 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.16 | -0.15 |
| Rushing success rate | 38.7% | 47.6% |
| Passing success rate | 36.0% | 42.8% |
| Run stuff rate | 18.7% | 17.1% |
| Passing-down success rate | 25.0% | 35.5% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 33.6% | 25.6% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 31.5% | 53.8% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 45.7% | 37.0% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 18.4% | 68.1% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 32.4% | 55.2% |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Murray State schedule · Illinois State schedule · all Week 9 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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