Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Southern Illinois 27.7, Northern Iowa 23 at Saluki Stadium in Week 8. That is a lean: Southern Illinois wins about 62% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 4.7 points and 50.7 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
Northern Iowa is 3-3, scoring 25.7 and allowing 29.3 points per game (-3.6 per game). Southern Illinois is 3-5, scoring 22.9 and allowing 27.5 points per game (-4.6 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Northern Iowa by 18 and Southern Illinois by 27 about 80% of the time.
Southern Illinois gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Southern Illinois by about 2.6. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Northern Iowa 17, Southern Illinois 20. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 1.7 points and the total by 13.7.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Northern Iowa 23.0, Southern Illinois 27.7 | Southern Illinois 62%right winner | 1.7 | 13.7 |
| New formula | Not recorded for this game | |||
Final: Northern Iowa 17, Southern Illinois 20. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Northern Iowa vs Southern Illinois: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Northern Iowa | Southern Illinois |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 17.3 | 36.4 |
| Points allowed per game | 26.8 | 26.7 |
| Yards per play | 5.15 | 6.96 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.09 | 6.19 |
| Rushing yards per game | 140.1 | 215.3 |
| Net passing yards per game | 186.8 | 237.9 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 196.1 | 202.4 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 204.4 | 211.2 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.42 | 0.92 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.58 | 1.42 |
| Sacks per game | 1.58 | 1.50 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.42 | 1.00 |
| Stat | Northern Iowa | Southern Illinois |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.06 | +0.13 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.04 | +0.09 |
| Success rate | 39.8% | 47.3% |
| Success rate allowed | 45.6% | 45.0% |
| Explosive play rate | 10.8% | 13.8% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 14.5% | 12.7% |
| Havoc rate | 10.9% | 13.1% |
| Havoc allowed | 13.0% | 8.9% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 1.83 | 4.19 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 1.83 | 3.65 |
| Average starting field position | opp 7 | opp 5 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 7 | opp 4 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 63.4 | 65.1 |
| Stat | Northern Iowa | Southern Illinois |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.02 | +0.17 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.10 | +0.08 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.01 | +0.08 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.05 | +0.10 |
| Rushing success rate | 40.7% | 54.4% |
| Passing success rate | 38.3% | 43.8% |
| Run stuff rate | 16.6% | 15.3% |
| Passing-down success rate | 25.3% | 35.5% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 31.5% | 34.2% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 39.4% | 53.0% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 45.8% | 46.8% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 25.1% | 64.0% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 33.9% | 53.0% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Northern Iowa schedule · Southern Illinois schedule · all Week 8 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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