Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Eastern Washington 27.1, Northern Iowa 22.1 at Roos Field in Week 1. That is a lean: Eastern Washington wins about 63% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 5 points and 49.2 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
Northern Iowa has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results. Eastern Washington is 0-1, scoring 27 and allowing 34 points per game (-7 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Northern Iowa by 18 and Eastern Washington by 28 about 80% of the time.
Eastern Washington gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Eastern Washington by about 2.9. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Northern Iowa 24, Eastern Washington 34. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 5 points and the total by 8.8.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Northern Iowa / Eastern Washington) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Eastern Washington -6.5 → Eastern Washington -7 | 52.5 | +216 / -280 |
| DraftKings | Eastern Washington -6.5 → Eastern Washington -7 | 52.5 | +216 / -280 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Eastern Washington win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Eastern Washington -5 | 49.2 | 63% |
| Market consensus | Eastern Washington -7 | 52.5 | 70% |
| Blended projection | Eastern Washington -6.5 | 52.9 | 68% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Eastern Washington win probability
- model 63% · market (no-vig) 70% · difference -7 pts
- Margin
- model Eastern Washington -5 · market Eastern Washington -7 · difference -2.0 pts (Eastern Washington view)
- Total
- model 49.2 · market 52.5 · difference -3.3
Model margin is 2.0 pts more toward Northern Iowa than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Northern Iowa 22.1, Eastern Washington 27.1 | Eastern Washington 63%right winner | 5.0 | 8.8 |
| New formula | Northern Iowa 24.0, Eastern Washington 30.6 | Eastern Washington 65%right winner | 3.4 | 3.5 |
Final: Northern Iowa 24, Eastern Washington 34. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Northern Iowa vs Eastern Washington: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Northern Iowa | Eastern Washington |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 17.3 | 23.4 |
| Points allowed per game | 26.8 | 30.2 |
| Yards per play | 5.15 | 5.12 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.09 | 6.25 |
| Rushing yards per game | 140.1 | 141.9 |
| Net passing yards per game | 186.8 | 215.3 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 196.1 | 198.4 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 204.4 | 253.3 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.42 | 1.33 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.58 | 1.25 |
| Sacks per game | 1.58 | 1.50 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.42 | 2.25 |
| Stat | Northern Iowa | Eastern Washington |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.06 | -0.12 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.04 | +0.03 |
| Success rate | 39.8% | 36.9% |
| Success rate allowed | 45.6% | 39.9% |
| Explosive play rate | 10.8% | 10.7% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 14.5% | 12.7% |
| Havoc rate | 10.9% | 10.8% |
| Havoc allowed | 13.0% | 16.0% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 1.83 | 2.99 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 1.83 | 3.60 |
| Average starting field position | opp 7 | opp 6 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 7 | opp 6 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 63.4 | 69.8 |
| Stat | Northern Iowa | Eastern Washington |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.02 | -0.08 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.10 | -0.14 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.01 | +0.00 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.05 | +0.04 |
| Rushing success rate | 40.7% | 37.7% |
| Passing success rate | 38.3% | 35.3% |
| Run stuff rate | 16.6% | 22.8% |
| Passing-down success rate | 25.3% | 27.7% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 31.5% | 29.1% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 39.4% | 34.8% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 45.8% | 43.9% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 25.1% | 54.3% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 33.9% | 52.5% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Northern Iowa schedule · Eastern Washington schedule · all Week 1 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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