Matchup analysis
Our model projects Northern Iowa 34, Murray State 19 at Roy Stewart Stadium in Week 12. That is a solid edge: Northern Iowa wins about 84% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 15.1 points and 53.8 combined points.
Northern Iowa is 3-4 against the 8th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 24.4 and allowing 28 points per game (-3.6 per game). Murray State is 1-7 against the 1st-toughest schedule so far, scoring 14.8 and allowing 41.8 points per game (-27 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Northern Iowa by 38 and Murray State by 7 about 80% of the time.
Murray State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Northern Iowa is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on ESPN+.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Northern Iowa vs Murray State: stat comparison
| Stat | Northern Iowa | Murray State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 24.4 | 14.8 |
| Points allowed per game | 28.0 | 41.8 |
| Yards per play | 5.16 | 4.86 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.99 | 6.32 |
| Rushing yards per game | 123.6 | 124.5 |
| Net passing yards per game | 199.9 | 158.6 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 195.7 | 226.1 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 220.1 | 190.4 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.71 | 1.13 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.14 | 0.50 |
| Sacks per game | 1.57 | 1.50 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 3.00 | 1.38 |
| Stat | Northern Iowa | Murray State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.04 | -0.05 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.08 | +0.14 |
| Success rate | 40.6% | 37.8% |
| Success rate allowed | 47.3% | 48.8% |
| Explosive play rate | 12.4% | 9.5% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.9% | 15.3% |
| Havoc rate | 12.3% | 11.8% |
| Havoc allowed | 13.2% | 13.3% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 0.96 | 1.09 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 2.04 | 2.46 |
| Average starting field position | opp 14 | opp 18 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 12 | opp 15 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 62.7 | 58.3 |
| Stat | Northern Iowa | Murray State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.07 | -0.03 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.12 | -0.08 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.18 | +0.13 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.00 | +0.16 |
| Rushing success rate | 41.7% | 38.7% |
| Passing success rate | 39.1% | 36.0% |
| Run stuff rate | 21.7% | 18.7% |
| Passing-down success rate | 29.8% | 25.0% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 32.4% | 33.6% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 36.8% | 31.5% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 48.2% | 45.7% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 14.8% | 18.4% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 29.4% | 32.4% |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Northern Iowa schedule · Murray State schedule · all Week 12 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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